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Cheltenham Wednesday Top Tip

15:05 CHAMPION CHASE: Tip expired – Event finished

Racecard

7 races take place on Cheltenham Wednesday (the 2nd day of 4 of the Cheltenham Festival) under the current schedule. In 2021, the 2nd day falls on 17th March. The feature race of Cheltenham Wednesday, the Champion Chase, starts at 15:05.

13:20 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Hurdles, 2 miles 5 furlongs) – This race features novice hurdlers, aged at least four years. Jockey Ruby Walsh has had 4 wins since 2008 in this race (Fiveforthree, Mikael d’Haguenet, Faugheen, and Yorkhill), making him the race’s leading jockey. Willie Mullins was the trainer on all these 4 occasions, making him the race’s leading trainer.

13:55 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Fences, 3 miles 1/2 furlong) – You will see novice chasers in this race, aged at least 5 years old. It is not unusual for winners of this race to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup the following year – e.g. Denman, Bobs Worth, and Lord Windermere. Trainer Nicky Henderson has won this race a record 4 times (joint record), including with Champ in 2020.

14:30 Coral Cup

15:05 CHAMPION CHASE (FENCES, 2 MILES) – This National Hunt steeplechase which is run on the Old Course, is the most important minimum distance allowed chase in the National Hunt year.… Read the rest

7 races are scheduled on the opening day of the 4 day Cheltenham Festival. In 2021, Cheltenham Tuesday (Day 1 of 4) falls on 16th March. The feature race of Cheltenham Tuesday, the Champion Hurdle, starts at 15:05.

Cheltenham Tuesday Top Tip

15:05 CHAMPION HURDLE: Tip expired – Event finished

Racecard

13:20 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Hurdles, 2 miles 1/2 furlong) – Horses must be at least 4 years old. Takes place on the Old Course. Jockey Ruby Walsh has won this race a record 6 times since 2006 – including Klassical Dream in 2019. Each of his wins was on a different horse.

13:55 Arkle Chase (Fences, 2 miles) – Horses must be at least 5 years old. This race is run on the Old Course. The famous Ruby Walsh-Willie Mullins jockey-trainer combination had 2 consecutive wins in 2015 and 2016 with Un de Sceaux and Douvan, and they also won in 2018 with Footpad. Willie Mullins was the winning trainer in 2019, with jockey Paul Townend riding Duc des Genievres.

14:30 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:05 CHAMPION HURDLE (HURDLES, 2 MILES 1/2 FURLONG) – This is the most well regarded National Hunt hurdles’ race of the year. For horses at least 4 years old.… Read the rest

Forecasts, Tricasts, Reverse Forecasts, Reverse Tricasts – these bets involve picking horses that will finish in the top two or three positions, in a single horse race. These bets can be useful if the favourite (the horse usually most likely to finish 1st) has a low price. The winnings are usually worked out using the starting prices of the horses, using computer software.

• Forecasts (Straight)
  • In horse racing betting, if you would like to predict which horse will win, and which will will be the runner-up (i.e. finish second), you can place a Forecast (known as Exacta or Perfecta in the USA).
  • If you place a Forecast, if you get the winner right your profit AND original stake is used as the new stake for the runner-up. If you get the runner-up right as well, you will get a return.

• Tricasts (Straight)
  • If you would like to predict which horses will finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (naming the horses that will finish in each position), you can place a Tricast ((known as Trifecta in the USA).
  • Again, the winnings on the 1st horse (including stake), is used as the new stake on the 2nd horse, and the winnings on the 2nd horse (including stake) is used as the new stake on the 3rd horse.

Full Cover Bets in horse racing betting, are bets consisting of all possible doubles, trebles, and fourfold and above accumulators (if appropriate) across a given number of selections. As long as at least two of your horses win, you will get something back (although this does not necessarily mean you will profit overall).

• Trixie – Choose three horses you think will win (from three different horse races). Your bet consists of four separate bets (three doubles, and one treble). If you wish to include the 3 singles too (Trixie, plus 3 singles), the bet is called a Patent.
• Yankee – This time you pick four horses to win, from four different races. Your bet consists of six doubles, four trebles, and one fourfold accumulator. That’s 11 separate bets. If you wish to include the 4 singles too (Yankee, plus 4 singles), the bet is called a Lucky 15 (as 15 separate bets are placed).
• Canadian – Make five selections from five different races to win. 26 separate bets are placed (10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 fourfold accumulators, and one fivefold accumulator). If you wish to include the 5 singles too (Canadian, plus 5 singles), the bet is called a Lucky 31.

Accumulators allow you to combine multiple bets, and potentially win big when all your selections win. Accumulators may seem great news to casual gut instinct bettors. After all, they offer the chance to win a lot of money for a small amount gambled. However, for the value bettor who is looking to potentially make a long term profit from betting, accumulators pose a great problem! We have already discussed the notion of overround – bookmakers will want to build in a profit margin on the markets they offer. However, when overrounds are multiplied it can be a big problem for the bettor! Hence, we are posting this Mitigating accumulator overround disaster article.

Let’s say you place a double (2 selection accumulator), with both bets having an overround of 12%. To calculate the combined overround:

[(1.12 x 1.12) multiplied by 100] minus 100 = 25.44% overround

Bookmakers would love you to place this accumulator, rather than 2 single bets. As an accumulator the total overround is more than double the individual overrounds.

Let’s say you place a 4 selection accumulator, and all four bets have a 12% overround. To calculate the combined overround:

[(1.12 x 1.12 x 1.12 x 1.12) multiplied by 100] minus 100 = 57.35% overround

As an accumulator the total overround is a lot more than quadruple the individual overrounds.… Read the rest

Accumulators Explained: If you place a double or a treble, you have placed 2 or 3 bets respectively. ALL your bets need to win, for you to make a profit (and get your stake back). If all your bets don’t win, you lose your stake and don’t get any profit. If your first bet wins, BOTH the winnings and the stake are combined to become the stake for the second bet etc. 4 bets can be called a fourfold. 5 bets can be called a fivefold. 6 bets can be called a sixfold. Although, all the above work in the same way (all the bets have to win, for you to make a return and get your original stake back), technically only 4 bets and above are called accumulators (although some people still decide to call doubles and trebles accumulators). Accumulators suffer from overround multiplication issue.

• Let’s say you have £60 to bet in total, on 4 bets at odds of 3/1, 4/1, 5/1, and 6/1.
  If you bet £15 on each of this outcomes separately, you stand to make the following profit on each bet (and get your £15 stake back):
  • 3/1 : £45
    4/1: £60
    5/1: £75
    6/1: £90
    If all the selections won you would get £270 in profit (and get your £60 of stakes back).

Overround Explained: The odds offered by bookmakers are unlikely to correspond exactly to the actual probabilities of the outcomes in any market happening, as no bookmaker is likely to operate without trying to offset its costs (and trying to make a little something on top)! Bookmakers are likely to be taking money from lots of customers over the possible outcomes – they may try to guarantee themselves a profit regardless of the result. Bookmakers may start a market by working out the actual probabilities of the outcomes in a market occurring and then incorporating a profit margin into the odds, but as money comes in on the market they will often adjust prices to attract less or more money to particular outcomes – e.g. they may want to limit their liability on an outcome they already face a big payout on if it comes through, or they may want to attract more money to different outcome(s) to one(s) they already have taken a lot of money on to guarantee a profit or minimise potential losses. How do bookmakers use overround to try and make profits?

As an example, here are the odds a bookmaker was offering, at the time of writing, on an upcoming Rugby Union match.… Read the rest

In National Hunt Racing, there are obstacles* on the course (as opposed to Flat racing, where there are not). The two most iconic and well-known horse races of any kind held in Great Britain, the Grand National and the Grade 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup, are National Hunt races.

• The majority of the National Hunt races in Great Britain take place in the winter months, rather than summer. There is a good reason for this, as the race courses should be softer in winter (as of course there should be more rain). As horses have to jump obstacles, this makes it a lot less dangerous than in the summer months.
• National Hunt racing can take the form of either hurdles or steeplechases.
• In hurdles races the obstacles the horses must jump are hurdles. There will be a minimum of eight hurdles in any race. These hurdles have a minimum height of three and a half feet. The races are between two to three and a half miles.
  • A well known example of a National Hunt hurdles race is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which is a Grade 1 race – this race is the first race on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival.