mitigating accumulator overround disaster

Mitigating accumulator overround disaster

Accumulators allow you to combine multiple bets, and potentially win big when all your selections win. Accumulators may seem great news to casual gut instinct bettors. After all, they offer the chance to win a lot of money for a small amount gambled. However, for the value bettor who is looking to potentially make a long term profit from betting, accumulators pose a great problem! We have already discussed the notion of overround – bookmakers will want to build in a profit margin on the markets they offer. However, when overrounds are multiplied it can be a big problem for the bettor! Hence, we are posting this Mitigating accumulator overround disaster article.

Let’s say you place a double (2 selection accumulator), with both bets having an overround of 12%. To calculate the combined overround:

[(1.12 x 1.12) multiplied by 100] minus 100 = 25.44% overround

Bookmakers would love you to place this accumulator, rather than 2 single bets. As an accumulator the total overround is more than double the individual overrounds.

Let’s say you place a 4 selection accumulator, and all four bets have a 12% overround. To calculate the combined overround:

[(1.12 x 1.12 x 1.12 x 1.12) multiplied by 100] minus 100 = 57.35%Read the rest

overround explained

Overround Explained – Why you must avoid betting markets with high overrounds!

Overround Explained: The odds offered by bookmakers are unlikely to correspond exactly to the actual probabilities of the outcomes in any market happening, as no bookmaker is likely to operate without trying to offset its costs (and trying to make a little something on top)! Bookmakers are likely to be taking money from lots of customers over the possible outcomes – they may try to guarantee themselves a profit regardless of the result. Bookmakers may start a market by working out the actual probabilities of the outcomes in a market occurring and then incorporating a profit margin into the odds, but as money comes in on the market they will often adjust prices to attract less or more money to particular outcomes – e.g. they may want to limit their liability on an outcome they already face a big payout on if it comes through, or they may want to attract more money to different outcome(s) to one(s) they already have taken a lot of money on to guarantee a profit or minimise potential losses. How do bookmakers use overround to try and make profits?

As an example, here are the odds a bookmaker was offering, at the time of writing, on an upcoming Rugby Union match.… Read the rest

accumulators explained

Accumulators Explained

Accumulators Explained: If you place a double or a treble, you have placed 2 or 3 bets respectively. ALL your bets need to win, for you to make a profit (and get your stake back). If all your bets don’t win, you lose your stake and don’t get any profit. If your first bet wins, BOTH the winnings and the stake are combined to become the stake for the second bet etc. 4 bets can be called a fourfold. 5 bets can be called a fivefold. 6 bets can be called a sixfold. Although, all the above work in the same way (all the bets have to win, for you to make a return and get your original stake back), technically only 4 bets and above are called accumulators (although some people still decide to call doubles and trebles accumulators). Accumulators suffer from overround multiplication issue.

  • Let’s say you have £60 to bet in total, on 4 bets at odds of 3/1, 4/1, 5/1, and 6/1.
    If you bet £15 on each of this outcomes separately, you stand to make the following profit on each bet (and get your £15 stake back):
    • 3/1 : £45
      4/1: £60
      5/1: £75
      6/1: £90
      If all the selections won you would get £270 in profit (and get your £60 of stakes back).
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Each-Way Bet

What is an Each-Way Bet?

The most standard bet you could make is a win bet. You will only make a profit if your selection wins. So, if you make a £5 bet at 7/1 at your favourite bookmaker you will make a £35 profit if your selection wins (and get your £5 stake back, if you win). Another common bet, is an Each-Way Bet. If you place an each-way bet on a single event, you are effectively making two separate bets. One bet is on a win only basis, and one is on a place basis.

  • A place bet, allows you to make a profit if your selection finishes not just first, but also in a certain number of other places (e.g. 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc. depending on what the bookmaker is offering). Usually, you will receive a proportion of the win odds.
  • So, if you have £5 to bet with in total on an Each-Way Bet, you could place a £2.50 each-way bet – this means £2.50 goes on the Win part, and £2.50 goes on the each-way part. Let’s say you bet on an outcome offering 7/1 odds if its wins, and 1/3 the win odds (in this case 7/3) if it places in the top 2.
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wisdom of the crowd

How does Wisdom of the Crowd affect odds?

  • Wisdom of the Crowd refers to the phenomenon that a large number of individuals in a group, will usually be able to make better decisions than any individual in that group.
  • For example, at a funfair say their was a big jar with an unknown amount of marbles. People were asked to guess the number of marbles (with the closest getting a prize). If you took all the guesses and averaged them (provided there was a sufficient number of people in the group) it would usually come close to the actual number of marbles in the jar. Obviously, the more people who participated the closer to the actual number you would get.
  • This happens, because individual noise is filtered out.
  • In the case of betting odds, Wisdom of the Crowd also has an effect as bookmakers are forced to lower prices getting a lot of betting action (and increase prices not getting a lot). So, highly backed outcomes get their prices lowered, and less well back outcomes get their prices increased.
  • However, for Wisdom of the Crowd to work people have to be making rational and independent decisions. In the case, of marbles in the jar at the funfair this may be the case.
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Grand National facts

Grand National Facts & tips!

The 2020 Grand National has been cancelled, although the virtual version (which has been ‘run’ in recent years only) will take its timeslot (and, it will be televised on itv).

Grand National tips

Tips for the Grand National can be found here.

The £1 million Grand National race at Aintree in 2020 takes place on Saturday 4th April, only a few weeks after the Cheltenham Festival. How many of these Grand National Facts do you know?

Grand National facts

  • Tiger Roll (jockey: Davy Russell, trainer: Gordon Elliot) has won the last two races (2019 and 2018).
  • In 2017 One For Arthur (jockey Derek Fox, trainer Lucinda Russell) was victorious. In 2016 Rule The World (jockey David Mullins, trainer Mouse Morris) won.
  • Jockey Leighton Aspell famously won 2 years in a row (in 2014 on Pineau de Re, and in 2015 on Many Clouds).
  • The biggest starting price of a winner in recent years was in 2009 when Mon Meme (jockey Liam Treadwell) won at 100/1.
  • 13 mares have won, but the last was Nickel Coin in 1951.
  • 3 different greys have won (1 winning twice), with the last grey winner Neptune Collonges in 2012.
  • A female jockey has never won, but in 2012 Katie Walsh was the first to finish in the top 3 (finishing 3rd on Seabass).
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cheltenham-friday

Cheltenham Friday – Races, facts, and tips!

Cheltenham Friday tips

Tips for Cheltenham Friday can be found here.

7 races will take place on Cheltenham Friday – the final day of the current 4 day Cheltenham Festival calendar. In 2020, Cheltenham Friday falls on 13th March. The Cheltenham Gold Cup, which is the feature race of Cheltenham Friday, starts at 15:30. All these races will take place on the New Course.

  • 13:30 Triumph Hurdle (8 Hurdles, 2 miles 1 furlong) – For Novice hurdlers. This is the leading National Hunt race, for juveniles only. Barry Geraghty’s 5 wins make him the race’s leading jockey. Nicky Henderson’s 7 wins make him the race’s leading trainer (including Pentland Hills in 2019). 4 horses who have won the Triumph Hurdle, have later gone on to win the Champion Hurdle, including Katchit (2007 Triumph Hurdle winner, 2008 Champion Hurdle winner).
  • 14:10 County Hurdle (8 Hurdles, 2 miles 1 furlong)
  • 14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (12 Hurdles, 3 miles) – Novice hurdlers, at least 4 years old, take part. Tony McCoy is the leading jockey in this race with 3 wins – Black Jack Ketchum in 2006, Wichita Lineman in 2007, and At Fishers Cross in 2013. Minella Indo won in 2019 (j: Rachael Blackmore, t: Henry de Bromhead).
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cheltenham-thursday

Cheltenham Thursday – Races, facts, and tips!

Cheltenham Thursday tips

Tips for Cheltenham Thursday can be found here.

7 races will be run on Cheltenham Thursday, the penultimate day in the current 4 day Cheltenham calendar. In 2020, Cheltenham Thursday falls on 12th March. The feature race of Cheltenham Thursday, the Stayers’ Hurdle, starts at 15:30. All races below will be run on the New Course.

  • 13:30 Marsh Novices’ Chase (17 Fences, 2 miles 4 furlongs) – Novice chasers, at least 5 years old, take part. Ruby Walsh is the leading jockey in this race with 3 wins – Vantour in 2015, Black Hercules in 2016, and Yorkhill in 2017. Willie Mullins was the trainer of all these horses, as well as the 2012 winner Sir Des Champs – his 4 wins make him the leading trainer in this race. 2019 saw Defi du Seuil win, jockeyed by Barry Geraghty.
  • 14:10 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (12 Hurdles, 3 miles)
  • 14:50 Ryanair Chase (17 Fences, 2 miles 5 furlongs) – Horses aged 5 years or older take part. Ruby Walsh is the race’s leading jockey with 4 wins, including on the Willie Mullins trained pair Vantour in 2016 and Un De Sceaux in 2017. In 2019, Frodon won (jockey: Bryony Frost).
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