sports betting bankroll management

Why is Sports Betting Bankroll Management essential?

Diligent sports betting bankroll management can be the difference between winning sports bettors, and those who are destined to lose all their money.

Here’s an example:

  • Let’s say that you have £1,000 to gamble with in total in your sports betting account with a bookmaker, but cannot replenish this money if you lose.
  • Let’s say you were betting on an event with only two possible outcomes, and the bookmaker was offering 6/5 on outcome 1, and 1/2 on outcome 2 (this is a made up example).
  • Let’s say according to your value bet calculations, you thought the true odds of each outcome was 1/1 – i.e. there is a 50% chance of outcome 1, and a 50% chance of outcome 2.
  • Of course you would want to bet on outcome 1, as you are getting better odds than required. You would never bet on outcome 2, as you are getting worse odds than required.
  • If you bet £1,000 on outcome 1, there’s nothing intrinsically wrong with the bet in terms of value. After all, you will be making £1,200 profit if outcome 1 happens!
  • However, what if outcome 2 happens? 50% of the time it will, and you will lose your stake of £1,000.
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wisdom of the crowd

How does Wisdom of the Crowd affect odds?

  • Wisdom of the Crowd refers to the phenomenon that a large number of individuals in a group, will usually be able to make better decisions than any individual in that group.
  • For example, at a funfair say their was a big jar with an unknown amount of marbles. People were asked to guess the number of marbles (with the closest getting a prize). If you took all the guesses and averaged them (provided there was a sufficient number of people in the group) it would usually come close to the actual number of marbles in the jar. Obviously, the more people who participated the closer to the actual number you would get.
  • This happens, because individual noise is filtered out.
  • In the case of betting odds, Wisdom of the Crowd also has an effect as bookmakers are forced to lower prices getting a lot of betting action (and increase prices not getting a lot). So, highly backed outcomes get their prices lowered, and less well back outcomes get their prices increased.
  • However, for Wisdom of the Crowd to work people have to be making rational and independent decisions. In the case, of marbles in the jar at the funfair this may be the case.
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starting price

Is it preferable to take the Starting Price?

When you place a bet on a horse race, instead of taking the fixed odds price on offer you might be able to place a bet at an unspecified Starting Price. Sometimes for future races, which haven’t been priced up by your selected bookmaker, you can only place a bet at the Starting Price (SP).

When you place a bet at the SP, you do not know in advance what odds you are getting! So, why on earth would you want to take this option? Odds on horses can fluctuate, in the build up to the race. When the race start time comes closer, it is clearer what the conditions will be like (e.g. is the ground heavy or soft, will it be raining or really hot at the time of the race), if any other horses have withdrawn, and if the horse has any issues etc. Odds can thus fluctuate for many reasons, including the amount being bet on a horse. So, with lots of money coming in, the price is likely to go down and vice-versa. In the UK, a panel decides the starting price (it should be the same regardless of which bookmaker you use), based on how they view the fluctuations of prices.… Read the rest

horse racing form

How can Horse Racing Form be used to make better bets?

When placing a bet with your bookmaker on a horse race, you may see each horse’s form indicated. You can also see horse racing form in newspapers which carry race cards. What do the letters, numbers, and other characters mean?

They tell you how each horse has performed in their most recent races. This may help you decide how each horse will perform in the current race that you are thinking of betting on. The important thing to remember is that the rightmost entry is the most recent race, the 2nd entry from the right is the 2nd most recent race, etc.

A number from 1 to 9, means that the horse finished in that position (a limitation of the form guide, is that it does not tell you how many horses ran in that race). If the horse finished outside of the top 9, the number 0 is shown. If the horse did not finish the race, you will see the reason indicated by one of the following letters: B,F,P,R,S,U which respectively stand for Brought down, Fell, Pulled up, Refused, Slipped up, and Unseated rider. You might also see the following characters: is used to separate years, and / is used to separate racing seasons.… Read the rest

forecasts tricasts reverse forecasts reverse tricasts

What are Forecasts, Tricasts, Reverse Forecasts, and Reverse Tricasts?

Forecasts, Tricasts, Reverse Forecasts, Reverse Tricasts – these bets involve picking horses that will finish in the top two or three positions, in a single horse race. These bets can be useful if the favourite (the horse usually most likely to finish 1st) has a low price. The winnings are usually worked out using the starting prices of the horses, using computer software.

  • Forecasts (Straight)
    • In horse racing betting, if you would like to predict which horse will win, and which will will be the runner-up (i.e. finish second), you can place a Forecast (known as Exacta or Perfecta in the USA).
    • If you place a Forecast, if you get the winner right your profit AND original stake is used as the new stake for the runner-up. If you get the runner-up right as well, you will get a return.
  • Tricasts (Straight)
    • If you would like to predict which horses will finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (naming the horses that will finish in each position), you can place a Tricast ((known as Trifecta in the USA).
    • Again, the winnings on the 1st horse (including stake), is used as the new stake on the 2nd horse, and the winnings on the 2nd horse (including stake) is used as the new stake on the 3rd horse.
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mitigating accumulator overround disaster

Mitigating accumulator overround disaster

Accumulators allow you to combine multiple bets, and potentially win big when all your selections win. Accumulators may seem great news to casual gut instinct bettors. After all, they offer the chance to win a lot of money for a small amount gambled. However, for the value bettor who is looking to potentially make a long term profit from betting, accumulators pose a great problem! We have already discussed the notion of overround – bookmakers will want to build in a profit margin on the markets they offer. However, when overrounds are multiplied it can be a big problem for the bettor! Hence, we are posting this Mitigating accumulator overround disaster article.

Let’s say you place a double (2 selection accumulator), with both bets having an overround of 12%. To calculate the combined overround:

[(1.12 x 1.12) multiplied by 100] minus 100 = 25.44% overround

Bookmakers would love you to place this accumulator, rather than 2 single bets. As an accumulator the total overround is more than double the individual overrounds.

Let’s say you place a 4 selection accumulator, and all four bets have a 12% overround. To calculate the combined overround:

[(1.12 x 1.12 x 1.12 x 1.12) multiplied by 100] minus 100 = 57.35% overround

As an accumulator the total overround is a lot more than quadruple the individual overrounds.… Read the rest

full cover bets

What are Full Cover Bets? Learn how to cover multiple permutations!

Full Cover Bets in horse racing betting, are bets consisting of all possible doubles, trebles, and fourfold and above accumulators (if appropriate) across a given number of selections. As long as at least two of your horses win, you will get something back (although this does not necessarily mean you will profit overall).

  • Trixie – Choose three horses you think will win (from three different horse races). Your bet consists of four separate bets (three doubles, and one treble). If you wish to include the 3 singles too (Trixie, plus 3 singles), the bet is called a Patent.
  • Yankee – This time you pick four horses to win, from four different races. Your bet consists of six doubles, four trebles, and one fourfold accumulator. That’s 11 separate bets. If you wish to include the 4 singles too (Yankee, plus 4 singles), the bet is called a Lucky 15 (as 15 separate bets are placed).
  • Canadian – Make five selections from five different races to win. 26 separate bets are placed (10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 fourfold accumulators, and one fivefold accumulator). If you wish to include the 5 singles too (Canadian, plus 5 singles), the bet is called a Lucky 31.
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accumulators explained

Accumulators Explained

Accumulators Explained: If you place a double or a treble, you have placed 2 or 3 bets respectively. ALL your bets need to win, for you to make a profit (and get your stake back). If all your bets don’t win, you lose your stake and don’t get any profit. If your first bet wins, BOTH the winnings and the stake are combined to become the stake for the second bet etc. 4 bets can be called a fourfold. 5 bets can be called a fivefold. 6 bets can be called a sixfold. Although, all the above work in the same way (all the bets have to win, for you to make a return and get your original stake back), technically only 4 bets and above are called accumulators (although some people still decide to call doubles and trebles accumulators). Accumulators suffer from overround multiplication issue.

  • Let’s say you have £60 to bet in total, on 4 bets at odds of 3/1, 4/1, 5/1, and 6/1.
    If you bet £15 on each of this outcomes separately, you stand to make the following profit on each bet (and get your £15 stake back):
    • 3/1 : £45
      4/1: £60
      5/1: £75
      6/1: £90
      If all the selections won you would get £270 in profit (and get your £60 of stakes back).
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