(expired)Sporting Index: Spread Betting Preview 6 Dec
Unsurprisingly, Chelsea are clear 1.0-1.2 favourites for their tie at Bolton on Saturday in Sporting Index’s supremacy market. Spread bettors looking to make a quick buck may be tempted by selling the supremacy after Chelsea’s recent poor run of three without a win, but maybe those punters should think again – going back to this fixture last season, Chelsea have won 19 of their last 22 away league games. Incredibly, 17 of those 19 victories have come to nil, with six by a 1-0 margin and seven by two goals to nil. Head-to-head, Bolton have managed to net in all of their last five at Chelsea but have failed to score a single goal in five against the Blues at the Reebok. Not many bettors expect a team to stand more chance of success if they play away, but in this case sellers of the time of Bolton’s first goal, at 67 minutes, might wish the match was being played at Stamford Bridge.
Discipline at the back does not necessarily indicate discipline elsewhere on the field and, as punters on Sporting Index’s bookings spreads may well be aware, recent matches between these two have not been short of cards. In the seven Bolton v Chelsea games in the last three years, 32 yellow cards and one red card have been dished out which translates to an average of 49.3 points on the index (10 points for a yellow card, 25 for a red). Sellers of bookings will be hoping for an altogether mellower affair this weekend.Nearby, the pressure will be on Blackburn manager Paul Ince to get a result at home against league leaders Liverpool. Fortunately for buyers of Liverpool’s supremacy spread (but unfortunately for the Guvnor) the omens look to favour Liverpool. Blackburn have lost seven of their last 11 at home against the top sides since 2006/07, whilst Liverpool have won 13 of 20 at sides outside the top six since the start of last season.
Buyers of the time of Blackburn’s first goal will be pleased that Liverpool’s defensive record is second only to Chelsea’s in the Premier League, having kept 14 clean sheets since the start of last season. Sporting Index’s total goals market for this game will be a spread of around 2.3-2.5 and sellers should be encouraged by games between the teams in the last three years. If you exclude last April’s 3-1 Liverpool victory, there have been only five goals in the six matches, an average of just 0.8 goals per game. Even with the inclusion of the 3-1 result, the average is just over one goal per game.
Roy Keane was given a hero’s welcome when he returned to Old Trafford for the first time as Sunderland boss last season. On his visit this weekend, he probably just wants a point, but buyers of United in the Sporting Index win index, as high as it is at 20.5-22, will be expecting a comfortable victory. United have dropped points in only three of their 25 home games since the start of last season, recording 16 wins by two goals or more and nine by three or more. The spread bettors latching onto United’s supremacy quote will also take heart that the Black Cats have lost nine of their last 11 against the Big Four without scoring.
The last week has pretty much summed up Arsenal’s season and there will be spread bettors out there who have had their fingers burnt and some who have profited. Following an excellent second half performance to inflict Chelsea’s second league defeat of the season, the kids were humbled at Burnley on Tuesday night; again showcasing why some spread bettors choose to stay away from having a strong view on Wenger’s side. They welcome Wigan to the Emirates on Saturday and buyers of Gunners supremacy on the spreads will be pleased to learn that they have won 22 of their last 30 games (73%) at the Emirates against sides outside the top six. Perhaps of more interest though is that only five of those wins have been by a single goal, with nine by exactly two and eight by three or more.
Spread betting punters know better than to disregard a team managed by Steve Bruce though and sellers of Arsenal supremacy with Sporting Index should take note that Wigan have only lost one of six away games against the Big Four by more than one goal under their current manager. In saying that, the Latics have lost 23 of their last 26 games against the Big Four in the league and those spread punters who fancy Arsenal to keep their first clean sheet in the league for six games will be encouraged that of the 23 games Wigan have lost, they have failed to score on 15 occasions.
Golden Boy Oscar De La Hoya squares up to Manny Pacquiao in a welterweight bout at the MGM Grand on Saturday night. Boxing spread bettors will no doubt be aware that although Pacquiao is regarded as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, this will be his first fight above lightweight and general expectation is that it will be tough for the Filipino. Sporting Index’s supremacy spread backs this up, set at 10-14 in favour of De La Hoya (10 pts for a win, 3pts per round end remaining) – suggesting also that the bout will last the distance or thereabouts.
De La Hoya has lost three of his last six fights, but of those he has won, only one was by KO. However, perhaps of greater relevance to punters, of his 14 fights at welterweight (between 1996 – 2001), eight were won by KO. Buyers of Pacquiao’s win index, at 3.5-5 (25 for win inside distance, 10 for points decision) will be hoping that will not be the case here and that the Pac Man’s speed and agility gets the better of a fighter a long way past his best.
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