(expired)Sporting Index: Spread Betting Preview 6-7 Sep
England begin their World Cup qualifying campaign against Andorra in Barcelona on Saturday night in what the traders at Sporting Index expect to be a relative ‘stroll in the park’. It’s not every day of the week you see an away side as the 3.5-3.7 goal favourites, but that’s the position Capello’s England side find themselves in. On paper, they should win easily having recorded decisive 5-0 and 3-0 victories over Andorra the last time they met back in 2006/2007. However, buyers will be conscious that England have a history of struggling against weaker opposition and particularly so in the first 45 minutes. The Three Lions have played 14 competitive games this decade away to teams ranked outside the top 50, with none of the games producing more than one first-half goal.
Sellers of total goals in the game at 3.8 with Sporting Index will take heart from the fact that all of Andorra’s last six games have featured 3 or fewer goals. In fact, since they lost 7-0 in Croatia last October, only one of their thirteen fixtures since has had more than 4.5 goals. Admittedly, they’ve played some equally bad sides in that time, but they have also managed to contain Russia, Israel and England along the way. Looking more generally at recent mismatches (a team ranked in the top 25 away to one outside the top 100) in UEFA qualifying competitions, the big sides have won 53 of the 59 games. The interesting trend for goal sellers is that a sizable majority (36 of those 59) have also featured under 3.5 goals. Those tempted to sell the time of the first Andorra match goal at 81 minutes with Sporting Index should be aware that the hosts have only managed to hit the net in just over a quarter of the 53 competitive matches they have played. Scotland are the 0.1-0.3 goal favourites away at Macedonia with Sporting Index earlier in the afternoon in a game with a goal expectation of only 2.1-2.3. The Scots have been a pretty efficient team away to all but the best sides in recent times, losing only four of the 25 competitive games away to countries ranked outside the top 20 over the last 15 years. Since 2000 they have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 3, but buyers should be wary that they have had some problems with teams like Macedonia – George Burley’s men managing just three wins, two draws and two defeats against those outside the top 50 but inside the top 100. Sellers of total goals at 2.1 will be hoping that Scotland’s lack of goals will continue to be their main problem. They have only scored 12 in ten games away to teams ranked outside the top 50 in that time – with all but two of those matches finishing with two goals or fewer.
Nadal and Federer are once again hot favourites to contest Sunday’s US Open Tennis Final, although Britain’s Andy Murray will be hoping to have a small say in that! Sporting Index are offering spread bettors a market on the ‘Match Distances’ for the US Open (100pts= five sets, 50pts=four sets, 0pts=three sets) and there are sure to be plenty of buyers if the big two meet again. Nadal and Federer have met previously eighteen times (Nadal now leads 12-6) and interestingly, nine of those matches have gone further than three sets.
The Formula 1 Grand Prix Championship moves to Belgium this weekend where the unpredictable weather, long straights and taxing corners make this a real stern test. However, Ferrari and McClaren teams have between them won nine out of the last ten Belgian GP’s, winning five and four respectively. Felipe Massa is currently lying second behind Hamilton in the Drivers Championship, having won last months’ European Grand Prix. The Brazilian already has 64 points in the bag and his Championship points can be bought at 101 with Sporting Index.
Horse Racing fans are in for a real treat this weekend with three of the six English and Irish meetings on Saturday staging Group races. Kempton hosts two Group 3 races on its all-weather surface, Leopardstown stages a Group 3 contest along with two Group 1 races, one of which is the much anticipated Irish Champions Stakes. Let’s not also forget that rain-sodden Haydock hosts the Group 1 Sprint Cup.
The rain still continues to fall on Haydock and officials have had plastic covers all over the track since last Saturday in an attempt to save the meeting. The ground looks sure to be heavy so buyers of winning distances will be keeping a close eye on things as the runners tend to get strung out on bottomless ground. However, statistics show that this is not the case with the Sprint Cup. Only three times over the last ten years has the winning margin been further than a length. Those interested in selling Winning SP’s should be aware that although the shortest priced winner of the Sprint Cup over the last decade was the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Diktat at 13/8 back in 1999, the race has served up plenty of shock winners in the past.
The most eagerly awaited race of the weekend is the potential rematch between Duke of Marmalade and New Approach in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. Whether both horses take their place in the line-up on Saturday remains to be seen, but the race will be a highlight regardless. Trainer Aidan O’Brien is bidding to saddle his sixth winner in this race in the last ten years. Buyers of winning distances will again be hard pressed to find success, as only once in the last eight years has a horse been victorious by a margin greater than a length, and that incidentally was Dylan Thomas, a former stablemate of Duke of Marmalade, who won the race by one and a half lengths last year.
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