(expired)Sporting Index: Spread Betting Preview 17-19 Jan
Everton make the short journey across Stanley Park on Monday evening, looking to put a dent in their rival’s title ambitions. Rafa Benitez’s side are now level pegging with Chelsea in second place in Sporting Index’s season points index (spread of 78-79.5). However, spread bettors looking to buy the Reds, hoping that they can clinch their first title for 29 years, will be concerned that after 21 games, five teams since 1995/96 have had a lead of two points or less at the top of the table. Not one of those went on to be crowned champions.
Back to Monday’s action and games between these two clubs have been very fiery of late, much to the delight of spread bettors who have bought bookings in recent encounters. Rafa Benitez has been the Reds manager in nine Premier League derbies and eight players have been sent off in that time. The Sporting Index traders are well aware of that though and will be pricing up bookings at around 64-68, making a buy a very risky spread betting option. In saying that, the statistics don’t lie and sellers will be hoping for one of the slightly calmer affairs. Seven of the nine league encounters have produced a bookings make up of 50 points or more, with a huge average of 74 in total and 76 at Anfield.
Everton have been climbing steadily up the table this season after a somewhat shaky start and now sit sixth both in the table and the Sporting Index season points tally. Surprisingly, their lofty position can be put down to their outstanding away form, whilst they have generally been disappointing at Goodison. The spread betting public will be loath to sell Everton’s supremacy on the road, as they have picked up 22 points from a possible 30. Liverpool are 0.5-0.7 point favourites in this game, so the Toffee’s followers definitely have a good opportunity. However, it’s worth examining the facts in slightly greater detail. Although Everton’s form has been excellent on their travels, most of their wins have come at lower half opposition and buyers of Liverpool supremacy on the spreads will take great heart that they were unbeaten at Anfield in 2008, winning 14 of 20 league games.
The last two games between these two at Anfield have seen just one goal scored, which will obviously concern those spread betting goal buyers. An in-play strategy will be of interest to some Sporting Index punters in this game as the first goal and time of that first goal will make a huge difference. Interestingly, both sides have tended to be level at the break in recent games and all of Everton’s last six away games have been goalless after 45 minutes. Sellers of the time of the first goal will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s fixture when Fernando Torres netted in the seventh minute, but they should also note that Liverpool have been level at the break in nine of their last 12 league games at Anfield and seven of those have been goalless.
The early live game on Sunday sees Fulham make the short trip across town to take on West Ham. The Hammers have scored 11 goals in their last four games, whilst Fulham have also found their scoring boots, with seven in their last four. Form like that normally gets the spread betting goals buyers out in their droves, especially as the last four meetings between the sides at Upton Park have all produced at least three goals. Goals buyers often like to take a more volatile position by selling the time of the first goal, but they won’t be happy that eight of the Cottager’s last 10 away games have gone in 0-0 at the break. They have also only managed to score one goal in their last eight away from home. West Ham seem to have turned a corner of late, but there has only been one first half goal seen at Upton Park in the past six meetings, with the Hammers failing to score in the first half in all of their last seven home games. Spread bettors buying the time of the first goal will be hoping the defences do their jobs in the first period at least.
For those spread punters who can’t wait until Sunday, Arsenal travel up to the KC Stadium on Saturday evening to take on Hull. The Tigers caused one of the biggest upsets in the league this year, much to the delight of the traders at Sporting Index, when they beat the Gunners 2-1 at the Emirates. They have begun to struggle of late though, despite their FA Cup win at Newcastle on Wednesday, and spread bettors looking to sell Arsenal’s supremacy will be hoping the Gunners don’t run riot. Five of their last six league games have produced two goals or fewer, so sellers will also be pleased that the Tigers last three games have only had three goals in total. Buyers shouldn’t be too despondent though, as seven of the 10 league games at the KC Stadium this season have produced three or more goals this season, whilst 14 of the Gunner’s last 20 away matches have also had three or more, with eight seeing at least a fourth. One of those perfect games for spread bettors to follow their opinion.
Superbowl XLIII is fast approaching with the championship round of the playoffs this weekend, seeing the Baltimore Ravens at the Pittsburgh Steelers from the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles at the Arizona Cardinals from the NFC. Sporting Index run a series of spread bets, not only individual match-ups but also on the round as a whole, including the total number of points scored across the two games – predicted to be between 79 and 83. Buyers will not be troubled at all by looking back to the equivalent meetings between the teams in the regular season where 111 total points were scored collectively (BAL 20 @ PIT 23 and ARI 20 @ PHI 48). The historical figures from the championship rounds since 2004 are favourable for buyers too, the scores totalling in each of the previous rounds, 105, 99, and 125, with only 2007’s total of 76 lower than this year’s spread. However, reassurance for sellers is not much further back in the past data –the total for the round was a meagre 55 in 2003 which also happened to be the last time the Eagles featured at this stage – when they scored just 3 points.
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