(expired)Sporting Index: Spread Betting Preview 15-16 Nov
The first big game of the season for rugby spread bettors to get their teeth into kicks off at 2.30pm at Twickenham on Saturday, with Australia trying to win only their second game in the Northern Hemisphere against England in the last six contests. The teams are incredibly evenly matched and Sporting Index reckon Martin Johnson’s side will clinch a win by the tightest of margins (supremacy betting spread 1-3). Looking back at the last 15 games between the sides and spread punters would find it difficult to form a strong supremacy view – particular with games played on this side of the world. In the last 15 games, since the 15-15 draw at Twickenham in 1997, seven have been decided by three or less points, and six of those games have taken place on European soil.
Rugby betting is dependent on many factors and although England spread betting supporters will point to the poor record of the Aussies in recent years against England (not including summer Internationals, they have only won two and drawn two of the 10 played between the countries), the weather will have a major effect. The Sporting Index traders have the total points spread at around 40-43 and sellers will be interested to learn that the average points total in the past ten games is 38.1. However, the last three at Twickenham have all been above 40 points, with the highest in recent years being the 32-31 England victory in 2002.
Hot on the heels of England v Australia is Ireland v New Zealand at 5.30pm and the Irish will go into this full of confidence after their 55-0 demolition of Canada last weekend. Sporting Index have the All Blacks as the 12-15 point favourites and although sellers might be hoping for a miracle, it’s worth remembering that Ireland have never beaten New Zealand, mustering just one draw in 1973. They have performed well against the Southern Hemisphere side in recent years though and spread supremacy sellers will be pleased that the last three margins of defeat have been by 10, 10 and 11 points. Buyers on the other hand will point to the last time these sides faced each other in Dublin; a 45-7 demolition.The Premier League is in full swing this weekend and those spread punters looking to pile into the Big Four again can watch all of them play on Saturday. Top plays bottom at The Hawthorns on Saturday evening and according to Sporting Index, that is where both Chelsea and West Brom will finish this season. Football spread betting means that you don’t have to throw 2/7 shots like Chelsea into an accumulator, but those big-time punters buying Chelsea in the win index at 21.5 will be delighted that, not only does Scolari’s side have a 100% away record this season, but in their last 20 games at promoted sides they have won them all. The supremacy spread has been installed at 1.2-1.4 in Chelsea’s favour and buyers will take even more encouragement that 14 of those 20 games have been won by more than one goal.
The Baggies have lost all of their last seven home league games against the boys from the Bridge, but those spread bettors interested in selling the time of their first goal at 64 minutes will be hoping for a repeat of Zoltan Gera’s 56th minute strike in 2004. Since then though, West Brom have only managed to score once against Chelsea, an 88th minute Kanu strike three seasons ago. When you take into account that the title favourites have only conceded one goal away from home in six games this season, the first Baggies goal buyers will be hoping that history repeats itself.
The betting public were quick to dismiss Arsenal in last Saturday’s home game against Man United. Statistical analysis showed that a home win was more likely than a win for the champions and those spread punters who sold United supremacy would have been celebrating well into the night. The Gunners have another tough home game on Saturday though, with Martin O’Neill’s Aston Villa in town. Arsenal are the 0.7-0.9 favourites and although they are unbeaten against Villa across all competitions in 19 games, they have drawn against them in both games at the Emirates. Interestingly, the spread bettors who had sold Arsenal supremacy in both of those last two games were only minutes away from an even better result, as the Gunners equalised in the 84th and 90th minutes.
Goals have been on the agenda for both of these sides this season and goal buyers at 2.7 will be boosted by an average of 3.7 goals at the Emirates in the league this year, as well as Villa’s 3.1 away average. However, before the spread goals vultures try to clean up by buying all the way to the bank, it’s worth remembering that four of the last six meetings between these two have had no more than two goals.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup, the first big handicap of the jumps season, takes place at HQ on Saturday and in the past decade horses carrying anything from 10st to 11st9lbs have been successful. Sellers of starting prices with Sporting Index will be pleased that five favourites have won in the last 10 runnings, although four of them were trained by the ‘Open Meeting Maestro’ Martin Pipe. The last two jollies have been beaten and two of the last three winners have returned a double figure price. Those spread punters playing the winning distances market will be keeping an eye out on the weather as Saturday approaches. Last year’s winner L’Antartique won by an ever-diminshing neck, but sellers won’t be too pleased to hear that five of the last eight winners have won by at least 3 lengths.
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