(expired)Sporting Index: Spread Betting Preview 11-12 Oct
The Premier League makes way for World Cup qualifiers this weekend, with each of the home nations in action. The Sporting Index traders have been working overtime trying to price markets for England v Kazakhstan – whilst there is little doubt on the likely result, there is also very little in the way of previous form for Kazakhstan, a team that only joined UEFA in 2004. Spread bettors should look to England’s performances against teams ranked 90 or above for guidance (Kazakhstan are ranked 98). Unsurprisingly, in the six matches they have played against such teams since 1992, they have won all six without conceding a goal. In four of those matches England managed to score three goals or more. Kazakhstan, on the other hand, have scored just twice in eight games, so buyers will be interested that Sporting Index’s supremacy is set at 2.9-3.1, whilst the spread of the first Kazakh goal is set at 80-82.
Kazakhstan’s story against top 20 sides is also as one would expect. Of six games played they have lost all six and were beaten by at least three goals in four of these matches. In fact, the Kazakhs managed to score just once – an 88th minute penalty against Greece in 2004. Spread punters are welcome to draw their own conclusions from these statistics – although it would take a brave punter to challenge Sporting Index’s England win index at 23-24.5 (with 25 points awarded for the win, 10 points for a draw and 0 for a defeat).
A much closer fixture this weekend is likely to be Slovenia versus Northern Ireland, ranked 55 and 57 respectively. Spread bettors will be fascinated by the number of goalless halftime score-lines where these two teams are involved. Going back to 1996, when Slovenia first played after gaining independence, almost half of their qualification home ties have been level after 45 minutes. Against teams of a similar ranking to NI, the figure is exactly 50%. The Ulstermen’s record in the same period is similar, with 59% of World Cup and Euro qualifiers level at the break. Punters should bear this in mind with Sporting Index’s total goal minutes market, currently set at 106-116. In the game’s total goals market, the spread has been set at 2.1 -2.3. Looking at Slovenia’s last qualification fixtures (for Euro 2008), they failed to score in eight of their 12 games, whilst NI supporters have witnessed two 0-0 draws out of their three games this season which will please the sellers.
Scotland host Norway on Saturday knowing that a win will take them into the top two in the group. Sporting Index have their supremacy at 0.2-0.4, but buyers will be concerned that the last time the sides met at Hampden (2006 World Cup Qualifier), the Scandinavians came out on top in a 1-0 win. Supremacy sellers, on the other hand, will be delighted to hear that Norway have a far stronger record away from home and in 35 competitive away games since 1996, they have won an extraordinary 60% (W21-D4-L10). Walter Smith’s side have a strong record at Hampden though which will be of some relief to Scots buyers and have won 25, drawn six and lost five in competitive matches since 1996.
Spread bettors will be interested to learn that the last four Euro Qualifying games at Hampden have averaged 3.5 goals per game. However, goal buyers will be more concerned when they hear that in six games at home against sides ranked between 21st – 50th in the world rankings, four of them have finished with 1 goal or fewer. Total goals sellers will also be pleased that the Norwegians have played away eight times against teams in the same bracket and 62% (5 of the 
finished with under 1.5 goals.
Wales take on the mighty Liechtenstein, with a population of just over 35,000, on Saturday and the Sporting Index traders will be hoping for a similar game to Wales’ last home tie against Azerbaijan last month. They only sneaked a 1-0 win thanks to an 83rd minute winner from Sam Vokes. Wales have played sides with Liechtenstein’s ranking profile (100-126) five times and have won them all, which will please Wales supremacy buyers (spread 2.2-2.4). They also haven’t conceded a goal in those games which will interest buyers of the first Liechtenstein goal at 76 with Sporting Index. However, sellers of Wales supremacy will take heart from the fact that Liechtenstein’s world ranking has improved from around 160 in 2002 to the present 120.
The Formula One season edges towards its climax in Japan on Sunday. With only three races remaining, studying the form book becomes increasingly unreliable as the pressure on the leading teams heats up. But with a seven point cushion after a decent performance under the floodlights at Singapore, it looks as though the weekend will suit Lewis Hamilton, and buyers of him in the Sporting Index race win index can take heart from last year’s performance in Fuji where he won from the front of the grid.
With drivers scrambling for the last remaining championship points, buyers of Hamilton’s season total spread (currently at 101-103) will also be hoping that he is also able to avoid the controversy of last year’s race, where a steward’s enquiry almost cost him his victory after he allegedly caused a crash between Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel. The Fuji circuit is widely perceived as being one of the most undemanding in Formula 1, so with overtaking possibilities at a maximum, spread bettors should be prepared for an intense contest.
Leave a Reply