Non-League Football

Luton Town v York City – Sunday 20^th May(kick-off 3pm)

Here are the thoughts of Alan Alger From Blue Square:

Although the tension, drama and ultimate prize of a place in the Football League makes them unmissable, it’s entirely fair to say that during the first four seasons of our sponsorship of the Football Conference we have not been blessed with a genuine classic Promotion Final. Since Morecambe’s thrilling comeback against Exeter City, the season before Blue Square became sponsors, the finals have been tense affairs in which some sides have just not ‘turned up’ on the day! Exeter City of course came back from that disappointment in 2007 to win the 2008 version – complete with new Blue Square branding. Luton Town will be aiming to become the second side to complete that 12-month turnaround after losing out to AFC Wimbledon in a penalty shoot-out last year. With York City losing to Oxford United two years ago this final features the last two sides to lose in this game. The prices for Sunday’s match suggest we are in for another game that could go ‘all the way’. We cannot split the two teams and we quote 5/6 for each to earn promotion. The 90-minute match prices are also in line with that expectation. Both sides are 8/5 to win the game whilst the draw is on offer at 11/5. We of course like to cover all the eventualities and either team can be backed to win in extra-time at 9/1 or via a penalty shoot-out at 11/1.

This will be the tenth Conference Premier Promotion Final and only 21 goals have been scored in normal time in the previous nine. That’s an average of just 2.33 per 90-minute game, which is in sharp contrast to an overall figure of just over 2.8 per game in regular season matches. A stat which makes the Blue Square Bet Premier the highest scoring professional division in the whole country. It’s natural to expect that figure to drop off for such an important game though. We make ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ the 8/11 favourite on our ‘Total Goals’ market for Sunday’s final. A repeat of last year’s goalless game is offered at 8/1 on our ‘Correct Score’ prices. Four of the last eight teams to be in this final have failed to score in the game. Our popular ‘Both Teams To Score’ special is priced at 4/6, but has recent history up against it. Last Sunday Gainsborough Trinity felt the full force of an historical jinx – which has never seen the winner of the Blue Square Bet North Promotion Final come from the semi-final contested by the 3^rd and 4^th placed teams. That’s now 8 years where either the 2^nd or 5^th placed team have earned a place in the Premier. Luton Town have a similar hoodoo to bury as no team that has finished 5^th in the final table has gone on to win this final since that second promotion spot was added in the 2002-03 season.

It’s very tight at the top of the market for the ‘First Goalscorer’ at Wembley and Luton’s Stuart Fleetwood is just edging favouritism at a price of 13/2. We then have four players at 7/1 including teammate Andre Gray and former Hatter Jason Walker – who played in last season’s final and missed a penalty in the shoot-out. George Pilkington stung Blue Square with his penalty at Wrexham as he had been well-backed to get the first goal at 33/1 at the Racecourse. We’re not being as generous for the final BUT… if he does still have the role from 12yards then 20/1 might still be a value bet. Matty Blair has scored some important goals for York this season but none more so than the one which took them to this final in extra-time at Mansfield. Blair is 8/1 to score in any York City victory in normal time. A full list of ‘Player Specials’ are available on the Blue Square site – including players to score, hit the woodwork, get booked – you name it we’ve got it.

York City have met Luton six times in the division over the last three years and also in a two-legged FA Trophy semi-final tie during this campaign. Luton have been victorious just once, when a nine-man York team were thrashed 5-0 at Kenilworth Road after losing goalkeeper Michael Ingham early on in the game, back in the middle of the 2010/11 season. The Minstermen didn’t have a goalkeeper on their bench and will feel that the result was harsh on them and their makeshift stopper Chris Smith. That aside they do hold a recent advantage over the Hatters with three wins and a draw in this season’s meetings between the two. That includes a 3-0 win at Bootham Crescent earlier in the campaign. The clubs were only separated by two points in the final table so any real advantage could be minimal. City completed their FA Trophy journey with a victory here at Wembley last Saturday and aim to become the first team to win both finals in the same season which would be an incredible achievement for Gary Mills’ side. Opposite number Paul Buckle saw his unbeaten run as Luton manager ended at Wrexham in the play-off semi-finals but that 2^nd leg defeat was not the worst way to lose his first game since arriving at the club as the ultimate aim of a place in this final was achieved on aggregate. It was a hectic start for the former Torquay boss but he will have had the luxury of 12 days without a game to get his squad in the right frame of mind to perform on the day. He, of course, knows what the occasion is all about having won here with the Gulls in 2009.

Overall our prices against the general market do favour York City, but only because we are calling this a level game, in contrast to the majority of the market who have Luton as clear favourites. I feel this looks far closer to call so it looks as though we are in for a great final. I can see Luton Town scoring first in the game but then being pegged back to a draw in the second-half. I think the match will end 1-1. I can also see a goal for each team in Extra-Time and the match requiring a Penalty Shoot-Out. I’d advise backing both teams to win on spot-kicks and at the end of Extra-Time you will be on a winning bet either way – much the same as last year’s advice. I feel both teams know how to defend well and at crucial stages this could be the deciding factor that takes this beyond 120 minutes with neither team wanting to make a mistake.

BEST BETS FOR THE BLUE SQUARE BET PREMIER PROMOTION FINAL

DRAW – Luton Town v York City

1-1 DRAW – Correct Score

LUTON/YORK TO WIN PROMOTION ON PENALTY SHOOT-OUT – (Combined) Method of Victory

WEDNESDAY 7.30pm – YORK CITY v MANSFIELD TOWN

York City meet third placed Mansfield Town in the Blue Square Bet Premier play-off semi-finals and it promises to be a close affair. The two sides were inseparable in two regular season games which both resulted in draws. Mansfield as the form team in the division over the last few months have moved into a position as favourites to join champions Fleetwood Town in League 2. Blue Square are quoting them at 9/4 with City as 11/4 shots just ahead of old foes Luton Town who, unusually for them, find themselves as 10/3 outsiders. York are 6/5 favourites to make home advantage count in the first leg, with Mansfield as 15/8 outsiders, a very probable draw is priced at 12/5. As for who will prevail after the two-legs – Blue Square quote Mansfield as the 4/5 favourites, with York ever so slightly behind them at 10/11 to reach Wembley for a second time this season. The similar chance of each club can also be illustrated by the odds for the first goalscorer at Bootham Crescent on Wednesday evening. Jason Walker and Matt Green are the 11/2 joint favourites. Green is just 7/2 to get on the scoresheet in a victory for the away side. Matty Blair has had a fantastic season for The Minstermen and he features in a number of exclusive Blue Square player specials on the game. Blair is 12/1 to score from outside the box and 13/2 to get York’s first goal on the night. York’s home record for the season is only the 8^th best in the division despite their finish in 4^th. They’ve only won two games at home to their fellow top 10 sides. In contrast Mansfield have been beaten just three times when visiting teams in the top half of the final table. The Stags have won five of their last six away games including a comprehensive 3-0 victory away at Kidderminster Harriers on the final day. An incredible 10 matches during Mansfield’s season have finished with a 1-1 scoreline, that’s nearly a quarter of their games – the price for that outcome in the first leg is 13/2. York have drawn five games by that 1-1 scoreline too, so it could be the best correct score bet on what is likely to be a very cagey night.

THURSDAY 7.30pm – LUTON TOWN v WREXHAM

With 17 points separating them in the regular table some might see Luton’s Blue Square Bet Premier play-off semi-final clash with Wrexham as a tough task for the Hatters. Pre-season turmoil at The Racecourse Ground lengthened Wrexham’s promotion odds to 14/1, whilst Luton were once again amongst the favourites to gain a place back in the Football League. A lot has changed since then, including in the managerial hot-seat at both clubs. Andy Morrell stepping up to the plate when  Dean Saunders left for Doncaster Rovers and more recently Paul Buckle replacing Gary Brabin at Kenilworth Road. Buckle remains unbeaten as Luton manager as he hauled his side into the play-offs after it looked as though they would miss out. The odds for Luton to achieve promotion went as high as 9/1 before settling as the 100/30 outsiders of the four play-off teams following Saturday’s all-important win at champions Fleetwood Town. Luton are the 13/10 favourites to gain a first leg advantage over their semi-final opponents, something they achieved in spectacular fashion last year albeit away from home. A repeat of that 3-0 scoreline is offered at 20/1. Blue Square make Wrexham the 8/11 favourites to go through after the two games, with Luton quoted at Evens. Andre Gray has been in fantastic form since signing from Hinckley and he is 13/8 to score at any time in the first leg. Stuart Fleetwood is the 11/2 favourite to be first goalscorer on Thursday night in front of the Premier Sports TV cameras. Robbie Willmott scored one of the most important goals of the season when netting in the 1-0 home win over Kidderminster and he is 5/1 to score in any Luton victory on Blue Square’s exclusive Score/Win double market. Wrexham not only showed their superiority to Luton in the final league table but also in their two regular season meetings too. The Red Dragons ran out 1-0 winners at Kenilworth Road back in October and then completed a double with a 2-0 home win in early March which started the run which ultimately ended Gary Brabin’s reign. Wrexham are 13/2 to record another 1-0 win in Bedfordshire to give themselves a first leg advantage. Jake Speight and Mathias Pogba are both 13/2 to score the first goal on the night although it’s unlikely both will start. Adrian Cieslewicz has scored some important goals for his team during the course of the season and is 3/1 to score at any time on Thursday night. Despite both clubs having the best defensive records in the division, a 2-2 draw looks like a value bet at 14/1 on a night when goals could flow.

Best Bets for York City v Mansfield Town:

DRAW – York City v Mansfield Town

1-1 DRAW – Correct-Score

MATTY BLAIR – To score York’s first goal

Best Bets for Luton Town v Wrexham:

DRAW – Luton Town v Wrexham

2-2 DRAW – Correct Score

ADRIAN CIESLEWICZ – To score at any time

This is the tenth season of the Football Conference play-offs and over the next few weeks we will see the four teams who finished 2^nd to 5^th in the Blue Square Bet Premier table battle it out to join champions Fleetwood Town in League 2. Luton Town secured the final play-off berth on the final day of the regular season and the prices for which of the quartet – the rest of which is made up by York City, Mansfield Town and Wrexham – will gain promotion are extremely close indeed. Form team Mansfield are Blue Square’s 9/4 favourites and they will begin with a trip to York on Wednesday. The two sides could not be separated with two draws in their league campaigns. York are 11/4 to go up, with most people complimenting them as one of the best footballing sides in the section. League runners-up Wrexham looked to have found their scoring boots again at the weekend and they aim for revenge over Luton who beat them at this stage last year. Wrexham are the 5/2 second-favourites to win the play-offs and Luton Town are, unusually for them, the outsiders at 10/3. Once again it’s going to be hard to judge how much of a turnaround Paul Buckle has achieved at Kenilworth Road, but one thing we can definitely say is that clean sheets – now five on the spin – are a massive plus.

TEAM BY TEAM GUIDE

WREXHAM

Wrexham have had a couple of weeks to get over the disappointment of missing out on automatic promotion. Their points tally for the season would have secured them the title in seven of the last 10 seasons in the division and they now hold the runners-up record. That will of course mean nothing to their fans if they fail at this hurdle. The Red Dragons appeared at this stage last year but their hopes were quickly dashed with a 3-0 home defeat to Luton in the first leg, they have the same semi-final opponents this time around. Being at home for the second leg could be in their favour but they’ll need to keep it tight at Kenilworth Road. They will be encouraged by the fact that Luton have yet to score against them this season.

What the manager says: ANDY MORRELL – “If you are going to go up you have to beat the best and Luton face us off the back of beating the champions Fleetwood. “We go into the play-offs off the back of two good performances, we should be on the front foot now. “The lads who were here last year know about the heartache and disappointment, they know we’ve got to be more solid and at our game to make up for that this time. “It’s now a bit of a lottery but we have to go and play as well as we have done all season.”

Seasonal head to head versus the other play-off teams – P6 W2 D1 L3 F4 A8 Pts7

BLUE SQUARE PRICES – To be promoted 5/2, To make the final 8/11

MANSFIELD TOWN

The Stags can be considered the form team going into the play-offs, in fact they are the form team of the last few months in the whole division and even outperformed champions Fleetwood Town from the turn of the year. The table from January 1^st would have Paul Cox’s side two points clear of the already promoted Lancashire side. Third place this season is a vast improvement on three consecutive mid-table finishes and it now feels that Cox has started to build a team to last, regardless of the outcome of the play-offs. Six straight wins is the best form that has ever been carried into the semi-finals and they should also be buoyed by the fact that third position has been the most successful down the years. A vast improvement in their away form has seen them defeated just four times on the road and they’ve ended the season unbeaten against their fellow play-off contenders.

What the manager says: PAUL COX – “I don’t know why we’ve been made favourites. “I suppose it’s the form we are coming into it with. “I am not trying to play mind games, you have to look at how long the other three clubs have been putting their squads together. “You’ve got to pick Wrexham as favourites for the season they’ve had. “Taking nothing away from us but in preparation terms we are the babies of the play-offs. “My squad don’t seem to be scared or anxious about these games though. “Field Mill will be like a cauldron on Monday, the football club is buzzing and the town is buzzing.”

Seasonal head to head versus the other play-off teams – P6 W2 D4 L0 F9 A5 Pts10

BLUE SQUARE PRICES – To be promoted 9/4favs, To make the final 4/5

YORK CITY

York come out best of the four play-off teams in a head-to-head comparison from the regular season. Gary Mills’ side completed a double over Luton and also managed a win away at runners-up Wrexham. The other three matches ended in draws included a Christmas double-header with semi-final opponents Mansfield. Last season it was their away from that let them down as they eventually finished 8^th in the table. In contrast this season their away form has improved to the extent that they would be 3^rd place in a table just based on those games. Their home form would have them as low as 8^th and that would be a concern going into Wednesday night’s first leg. They kept 12 clean-sheets at home last season and were also in double-figures the year before that but a more attacking style of play sees them with just eight at Bootham Crescent this season. They have the right players to unlock games in a cup tie situation though as we’ve seen from their progress to the FA Trophy final.

What the manager says: GARY MILLS – “These games are massive for this football club. “We’ve earned the right to be playing Mansfield in this semi-final, we know the prize on offer, we want to get to Wembley again. “We have got so much to play for and we are really looking forward to it. “We were behind in both matches against them in the league and had to show a bit of character to earn a point both times, but once we were a bit braver we got the ball down and dominated those games. “We’ve got ourselves prepared for the first game and I think it’s important that we take a lead to theirs on Monday. “I’m always confident that we can score goals.”

Seasonal head to head versus the other play-off teams – P6 W3 D3 L0 F11 A4 Pts12

BLUE SQUARE PRICES – To be promoted 11/4, To make the final 10/11

LUTON TOWN

A third season in the play-offs and a third manager in the Kenilworth Road hot-seat trying to return the club back to the Football League. In Paul Buckle they have a manager that has successfully negotiated this hurdle before which is an advantage he holds over the bosses at the other three clubs in contention. It’s been a season of under-achievement for the side as a whole, recording the lowest ever finish in their history, but at least a sense of positivity has been fostered by the team going on an unbeaten run under the former Torquay man. The Hatters carry five clean sheets into the promotion shoot-out and it’s nearly 500 minutes of football since keeper Mark Tyler was picking the ball out of his net. As one of the best stoppers at this level he will be a huge asset for them. The stats say that they haven’t beaten any of the other three teams in the play-offs this season, but Buckle would rightly argue that he wasn’t in charge for any of those six games – the hard work starts now though.

What the manager says: PAUL BUCKLE – “The realism is we’ve done nothing yet. “We’ve put ourselves in a strong position, we’ve got to stick together and give everything to see if we can get into that final. “From what I saw and witnessed a few weeks ago it didn’t look as if we’d be able to do this, but it goes to show you if you work hard you don’t know where it can take you. “The games just keep getting bigger and bigger for me, the club and the fans and it’s going to continue. “It’s going to be epic. “I know from experience that you need a lot of luck in these games, but the biggest thing for me is that we are actually there and now we have to make it count.”

Seasonal head to head versus the other play-off teams – P6 W0 D2 L4 F2 A9 Pts2

BLUE SQUARE PRICES – To be promoted 10/3, To make the final Evens

TEN STATS FOR THE TENTH YEAR OF THE CONFERENCE PLAY-OFFS

1. NO TEAM HAS EVER WON THE PLAY-OFFS FROM A FIFTH PLACED FINISH IN THE FINAL TABLE.
2. SIX OF THE PREVIOUS 18 SEMI-FINALS HAVE BEEN SETTLED ON A PENALTY SHOOT-OUT, BUT NONE SINCE 2007.
3. LUTON TOWN ARE THE FIRST TEAM TO APPEAR IN THREE CONSECUTIVE SEASON’S OF THE PLAY-OFFS.
4. THE NINE PREVIOUS WINNERS HAVE ALL STAYED IN THE FOOTBALL LEAGUE.
5. FOUR OF THE NINE LOSING FINALISTS NOW PLY THEIR TRADE IN THE FOOTBALL LEAGUE.
6. WITH FIVE WINS IN THE NINE FINALS, THE THIRD PLACED TEAM IN THE REGULAR SEASON TABLE HAS BEEN MOST SUCCESSFUL.
7. THE SEMI-FINAL MATCHES AVERAGE JUST 2.55 GOALS PER GAME, WAY UNDER THE REGULAR SEASON TOTAL.
8. THE LAST SEVEN FAVOURITES FOR THE PLAY-OFF STAGE HAVE FAILED TO WIN PROMOTION.
9. AFC WIMBLEDON’S 8-1 THRASHING OF FLEETWOOD TOWN LAST YEAR WAS THE HIGHEST SCORING SEMI-FINAL AGGREGATE.
10. SEVEN OF THE PREVIOUS 18 SEMI-FINAL FIRST LEGS HAVE ENDED IN DRAWS.

SAUNDERS LEADS WREXHAM TO TOP SPOT

Wrexham boss Dean Saunders has been named the Blue Square Bet Premier ‘manager of the month’ for August. Saunders’ side remain unbeaten at the top of the table, having secured 16 points from a possible 18 at the start of the campaign. Despite a pre-season of uncertainty at the Racecourse Ground, the former Liverpool striker has been able to galvanise his team to produce some great performances – including their latest win over title favourites Fleetwood Town.

The Blue Square Bet North ‘manager of the month’ for August is Gary Lowe from Hyde. Former Curzon Ashton boss Lowe took over at Ewen Fields during pre-season and has wasted no time in making his mark on the Tigers. Following a link up with the ‘Glenn Hoddle Academy’ the Manchester based side have started the season with a 100% record, featuring six wins, scoring 15 goals and only conceding 2 in the process.

The Blue Square Bet South ‘manager of the month’ for August is Jamie Day from Welling United. The Wings’ player-manager has led his side to the top of the table with five wins and a draw in their first six matches. The former Arsenal trainee has impressed during his first spell in management and will celebrate two years in the Park View Road hot seat in November.

SHAW FIRES HIS WAY TO AUGUST AWARD

Gateshead’s Jon Shaw has been named the Blue Square Bet Premier ‘player of the month’ for August. The Heed narrowly missed out on an August double as Shaw’s boss Ian Bogie was pipped in the manager category. Shaw has scored seven goals in six league games to propel his side to a share of the lead at the top of the early table.

The Blue Square Bet North ‘player of the month’ for August is Phil Marsh from Stalybridge Celtic. Marsh collects another accolade after a truly phenomenal start to the season. The striker has scored 10 goals in just six matches for Jim Harvey’s side as they make an early charge for promotion.

The Blue Square Bet South ‘player of the month’ for August is Andy Pugh from Welling United. The talented young forward has missed just seven minutes of the Wings’ fantastic start to the season. The Kent club collecting a double award as Pugh’s boss Jamie Day takes the managerial equivalent. Pugh has scored seven goals in six matches and has provided three assists during the month.

2011/12 Season – August awards summary:

MANAGERS
Blue Square Bet Premier DEAN SAUNDERS from Wrexham
Blue Square Bet North GARY LOWE from Hyde
Blue Square Bet South JAMIE DAY from Welling United

PLAYERS
Blue Square Bet Premier JON SHAW from Gateshead
Blue Square Bet North PHIL MARSH from Stalybridge Celtic
Blue Square Bet South ANDY PUGH from Welling United

BROWN TOP BOSS AS WOMBLES PROMOTED TO THE FOOTBALL LEAGUE

Terry Brown from AFC Wimbledon has been named the Blue Square Bet Premier ‘manager of the month’ for April and the Play-Offs. Brown took his side to the Football League after a tense promotion final against Luton Town at the City of Manchester Stadium. The Wombles extended their unbeaten run to ten games with a goalless draw at Eastlands before prevailing in a penalty shoot-out. Their 8-1 aggregate win over Fleetwood Town in the semi-final followed five league wins and a draw which confirmed a runner-up berth in the final table behind champions Crawley Town.

The Blue Square Bet North ‘manager of the month’ for April and the Play-Offs is Jim Harvey from Stalybridge Celtic. Harvey’s side secured a top-half finish in the final league table with four wins and two draws during the month. Celtic scored 13 goals in the process and signalled their intent for a campaign aiming for promotion next season with Harvey’s band of youngsters.

The Blue Square Bet South ‘manager of the month’ for April and the Play-Offs is Liam Daish from Ebbsfleet United. Daish returned The Fleet back to the Premier division with victory in the play-offs after a fantastic month which saw them lose only once in ten matches. That regular season defeat at home to Chelmsford was erased with a 6-2 aggregate victory over the same opposition in the play-off semi-finals to earn a place in the final at Farnborough. Daish’s side continued their free-scoring form to beat the hosts 4-2 in the final and earn promotion to Non League’s top-flight.

SHOOT-OUT HERO SEB LANDS DOUBLE FOR WOMBLES

AFC Wimbledon’s Seb Brown has been named the Blue Square Bet Premier ‘player of the month’ for April and the Play-Offs. The lifelong Wombles fan saved two spot-kicks in the promotion final against Luton Town to secure promotion for his side. Brown also kept five clean sheets in the nine games during the period and only conceded four goals in over 800 minutes of football – including a tense extra-time period at Eastlands. The award makes up a fitting double for the Kingsmeadow side as boss and namesake Terry scooped the managerial honours.

The Blue Square Bet North ‘player of the month’ for April and the Play-Offs is Liam Hearn from Alfreton Town. Hearn’s side stormed to the league title with his eleven goals in nine games. The Reds had a fantastic end to their championship season and Hearn contributed nearly 50% of their goals during the period. The highlight of which was a hat-trick in the home match against play-off bound Guiseley.

The Blue Square Bet South ‘player of the month’ for April and the Play-Offs is Michael West from Ebbsfleet United. West is a tremendous prospect for The Fleet and proved his worth with two goals in each of their three play-off games as they returned to the Premier division. West also scored two goals in April as Ebbsfleet secured third place in the final table.

Here’s an interview with Mumford & Sons lead singer Marcus Mumford, who will be following his beloved AFC Wimbledon all the way to Manchester to see them play Luton Town in the Blue Square Bet Premier Promotion Final at the City of Manchester Stadium on Saturday 21st May at 3pm:

Question – First the ‘quick-fire’ round – What was your first football memory?

Marcus Mumford (Mumford & Sons) – Dolphin Primary School vs Bolingbroke Primary School, May 1992, I think I missed a penalty and spent quite a while just staring at the girls who were on their team. It was awesome.

Question – What is your best memory as an AFC Wimbledon fan?

MM – Honestly that 6-1 victory over Fleetwood last week to take us to this final was unbelievable. It’s got to be right up there!

Question – What was your best moment of this season outside the play-offs?

MM – Beating Crawley Town 2-1 at home in September.

Question – What is your worst moment as fan?

MM – Beckham’s ridiculous goal from half way against Wimbledon at Selhurst Park in 1996. In a way I’m also glad I was there for that though.

Question – What has been your worst moment of the season?

MM – Being away for so many of the games this season. That’s a collection of extended moments though I suppose. The fact that BBC live text is pretty terrible for non-league supporters doesn’t help matters.

Question – Who is your favourite current AFC Wimbledon player?

MM – Our captain, of course, Lord Daniel Kedwell, or, as I’m really trying to instigate as a nickname at every game, “Uncle Danny”.

Danny is 5/1 with Blue Square to get the first goal in the game and 7/1 to be awarded the Man of the Match by Premier Sports TV.

Question – Who is your favourite all-time player?

MM – Lionel Messi.

Question – Why do you support AFC Wimbledon –

MM – Cos I’m a Wimbledon boy!

Question – What is your prediction for the final?

MM – 3-2 to the Dons.

AFC Wimbledon are 25/1 with Blue Square to win 3-2 in 90 minutes.

Question – Ok let’s talk music – The players listen to music in the dressing room before the game to get wound up – which of your songs would you listen to on Saturday just before 3pm?

MM – None of them! I’d listen to War Pigs by Black Sabbath, or Killing in the Name by Rage Against The Machine, or 99 Problems by Jay-Z. Our stuff is not nearly bad-ass enough for footballers!

Question – And finally Marcus, you’re good with words – What would be the basis of your team talk to the players today if you could give one?

MM - Destiny. “Life being a game of inches”. Making history. Doing it for the fans, some of the most dedicated and supportive fans in football history. Earning our place back in the League.

AFC Wimbledon v Luton Town – Saturday 21st May, 3pm kick-off, City of Manchester Stadium

Despite finishing one place and six points behind AFC Wimbledon in the final Blue Square Bet Premier table it’s Luton Town that are the narrow 7/5 favourites to win Saturday’s match. AFC Wimbledon are the 8/5 outsiders with Blue Square and the draw is available at 12/5. Terry Brown’s team have not tasted defeat since March 18 when they were 3-1 losers at eventual champions Crawley Town. In nine games since that defeat they have failed to win in only one (a goalless draw at Forest Green) and conceded just four goals in over 800 minutes of competitive football.

Finding a way past that solid Wombles defence will be a real challenge for Luton boss Gary Brabin who does at least have some real striking options at his disposal. Brabin’s team have scored 13 goals in their last five matches and averaged 1.85 goals per game in the regular season. The Kenilworth Road side have been scoring goals from all sections of the pitch recently which bodes well for this final.

‘First Goalscorer’ prices for Zdenek Kroca and George Pilkington of 20/1 and 22/1 respectively could be very tempting on Blue Square’s unlimited each-way terms for the Luton centre-backs who like to get forward for set-pieces. Recent signing Kaid Mohamed was in excellent goalscoring form for AFC Wimbledon as they made it through to the final and he is 80/1 to repeat his hat-trick from the second leg against Fleetwood on this big stage in Manchester. Claude Gnakpa is no stranger to scoring important goals for Luton and he is priced at 9/2 to score in any Hatters’ victory on Blue Square’s exclusive ‘Score/Win Double’ market.

A price of 8/1 for ‘No Goalscorer’ in the standard 90 minutes points to a game with plenty at stake and limited goalmouth action. Whilst early goals could obviously change that cautious attitude with decent defences on show and an average of two goals per game between these sides in this division – ‘Under 2.5’ on the goals market could be a good investment at 8/11. Over a quarter of Luton’s matches this season have ended in either a 1-0 win or a 1-1 draw and those outcomes are priced at 13/2 for a one goal win and 6/1 for the 1-1 stalemate. AFC Wimbledon’s most common result is a 2-1 win and that can be backed at 9/1.

It’s 8/11 that Luton achieve promotion today and Evens that AFC Wimbledon can prevail by any means. Those means could entail ‘Extra-Time’ or even a ‘Penalty Shoot-Out’ which have been accounted for in Blue’s Square Match Specials section. You can back either side to win on penalties at 10/1 or take Luton at 8/1 to win in extra-time, with AFC Wimbledon available at 11/1 to do likewise.

Third placed Ebbsfleet United finished just four points behind their Blue Square Bet South play-off final opponents Farnborough in the final league table. Liam Daish’s team make the journey across to Hampshire full of confidence after their 6-2 aggregate demolition of Chelmsford City at the semi-final stage. Farnborough had to work harder for their place in the final after being taken to extra-time by local rivals Woking for a slot in this winner takes all affair.

The teams met at The Rushmoor Stadium in the first few weeks of the season when Ebbsfleet ran out the 2-1 winners. Steve King’s Farnborough got their revenge in February though with a 3-0 win in Kent. Those results make the clubs hard to split for this huge fixture. Farnborough with home advantage, as runners-up in the league, are the slight favourites for promotion at 8/11 with The Fleet offered at Evens by the league sponsors Blue Square.

Farnborough did finish the regular season with three defeats in their last five games, but that could be excused due to injuries and then the eventual confirmation of Braintree Town as champions. They bounced back well enough to win 1-0 at Woking in the first leg of their semi-final which is form that reads very well considering the revival of The Cards under new manager Garry Hill. If it wasn’t for such a poor start to last season Ebbsfleet would probably still be in the Premier division. Their form since the midway point of the last campaign has been extremely good and for 18 months Daish has been getting a great tune out of his group of youngsters. His side had by far the best away record in the division and on the balance of things may even be grateful that they are away from Stonebridge Road, where they failed to win in 57% of their regular season games, for this fixture.

The Fleet have been scoring plenty of goals in their recent games and the home defence will have to be on their best form to keep them at bay. It’s worth speculating that there will be goals in this game as King’s team scored the most goals of any side in the 42-game season – an phenomenal 1.98 per game. With so much at stake an early goal could really open up this final and ‘4 or more’ goals at 13/8 looks a good investment. Farnborough are 13/10 to win in normal time with Ebbsfleet 17/10 outsiders in the same market. A draw is 12/5, with a 2-2 correct-score looking tempting at 16/1. (more…)

Blue Square Bet North runners-up AFC Telford United host Guiseley at the Bucks Head Stadium on Sunday with a place in next seasons’ Blue Square Bet Premier up for grabs. Telford finished nine points ahead of their opponents in the regular season table but it all comes down to one match to decide the huge prize, albeit with home advantage for their higher finish.

The home side saw off Nuneaton Town in their semi-final with a 2-1 home win after a 1-1 draw in the first leg. Boss Andy Sinton has seen his team remain unbeaten since the 9^th of April and will no doubt relish taking on opponents that his side completed a double over in the league this season with a goal difference of 4-0. That said he won’t be taking things for granted and having seen off Boston United on penalties in their semi-final the Yorkshire outfit will be fully charged for this huge clash.

Guiseley held their nerve away at Boston in the second leg after the favourites hit them with an early equaliser and then another leveller in extra-time, having thought the job was done. Their record against the top teams in the division may be of some concern as they won only two of 10 matches against their fellow top six teams. Scoring goals has also been a problem for Steve Kittrick’s team and they only finished 12^th in the ‘goals for’ table over the course of the 40-game season. They face the division’s best defensive outfit in this final too, so will need to take their chances. Telford have an incredible clean-sheet record of 55% of their 40 matches.

League sponsors Blue Square make Telford the 4/7 favourites to gain promotion by any means on Sunday and 10/11 favourites to get the job done in 90 minutes. Guiseley are the 5/4 outsiders to go up and 5/2 to win the match in normal time. The away side are 14/1 to prevail in another penalty shoot-out. (more…)

Luton Town and AFC Wimbledon are as short as 1/16 to be the Blue Square Bet Premier play-off finalists at the City of Manchester Stadium on May 21^st. Both Southern sides hold advantages from the first legs and now just have to negotiate 90 minutes at their home grounds to see out a semi-final success. Luton’s victory at Wrexham on Thursday saw them playing some fantastic football as the hosts struggled to cope with their fluid movement.

All three goals were well taken and not even the most diehard Red Dragons fan could deny that they were worthy winners. Dean Saunders was rightly dejected in his post match interview on Premier Sports and they are left needing a 100/1 miracle to be playing in League 2 next season. Stranger things have happened in football – after all Newcastle recently made up a four goal deficit in just over 30 minutes against Arsenal.

Luton are the 8/11 favourites to complete the double at Kenilworth Road, the draw is 12/5 and Wrexham are 10/3 to win in 90 minutes – whether the actual result puts them through or not. What is most important for Saunders’ side is that they do not concede early in the game and build up their play patiently against what is usually a solid home defence. They are not likely to get much more than five or six chances in the 90 minutes so their strikers will have to be on top form. They won’t be able to afford the kind of mistakes they made in defence in midweek either.

Fleetwood Town also made a similar error at the back to let AFC Wimbledon open the scoring on the following night. Wombles forward Luke Moore is adept at creating chances for himself as he reads the game so well – and it’s not the first time in the last few seasons that the live TV cameras have witnessed his cool finishing. Both first legs were rough encounters and at times the Fleetwood v Wimbledon game threatened to turn ugly.

With sending-offs a regular feature of live matches it was good to get through two games without a dismissal and unfortunately I think the second legs might redress that balance. There have been nearly two red cards for every three live games since Blue Square’s sponsorship began so odds of 5/2 for a red in either game this week will represent great value – especially with so much at stake.

Cod Army boss Micky Mellon rightly points out that the next goal in their tie will be vitally important. His team will have to breach an AFC Wimbledon defence that has only been broken three times in the last 800 minutes of football – and with Jamie Stuart and Brett Johnson immense at the back at Highbury. Terry Brown’s team are the 5/6 favourites to win the second leg, the draw is 12/5 and Fleetwood Town are 14/5.

RECOMMENDED SEMI-FINAL SECOND LEG BETS

RED CARD – Luton Town v Wrexham

RED CARD – AFC Wimbledon v Fleetwood Town

Full match prices and special markets are available.

All four play-off Semi-Finals and the Final will be exclusively live on Premier Sports. Premier Sports is the only place to enjoy live Blue Square Bet Premier matches this season, and we don’t want you to miss out on any of the action. Blue Square are offering to pay the cost of subscription for all of their loyal customers!