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It’s the biggest match in football where legends are made and dreams are left shattered, and we are guaranteed a new World Cup winner as Holland take on Spain in the first ever all-European final outside of Europe.

The Campaign so far

Holland have been in imperious form during this World Cup, winning all 6 of their matches so far and scoring an impressive 12 goals along the way. A fairly kind draw saw them paired with Japan, Denmark and Cameroon in Group F, and their form has continued to improve in the knockout rounds as they have disposed of Slovakia, Brazil and Uruguay to reach the final.

A more pragmatic side under Bert van Marwijk than the one which took Euro 2008 by storm under Marco van Basten before exiting in the quarter-finals, this Dutch team is solid at the back with a genuine cutting edge in attack, and having seen them dump out 5-time winners Brazil along the way, backing the 13/5 about them to win this match could be a very shrewd move.

Spain of course opened their campaign with a 1-0 defeat against a Swiss side who parked the proverbial bus, a worrying sign for their backers, but it has been plain sailing ever since with Group H wins over Honduras and Chile and further success against Portugal, Paraguay and Germany.

Midfield dominance and intricate passing, so characteristic of their Euro 2008 success, has again been the cornerstone of Spain’s campaign, and while they have only scored once in each of their 3 knockout fixtures, 3 clean sheets in those games tells a tale of a side in top form. A team who monopolise the ball and await the right opening with great patience,  Spain will inevitably be heavily backed to win this one in 90 minutes at 11/10.

The Key Men

Wesley Sneijder is the driving force of this Dutch side, the Champions League-winning Inter Milan man controlling things from an advanced midfield role, and with 5 goals to his name so far, he is the competition’s joint top scorer with David Villa. Sneijder is 10/3 to score at any time in the 90 minutes, and having already scored from outside the box against Japan and Brazil, the dead ball expert is a 10/1 shot to repeat the trick here. Having successfully tipped him to be man of the match against Uruguay, it would be hard to argue with a repeat of that bet at 5/1 here.

Arjen Robben has also been instrumental in Holland’s campaign, his first start against Slovakia after injury was capped by a fine early goal, and after heading his side’s third against Uruguay, the Bayern winger is 10/3 to score again in the final. His struggle against injury during the group stage may have been a blessing in disguise as he hits form at just the right time, and Robben is a 10/1 shot for the first goal, a very decent each-way bet considering Blue Square offer unlimited places on this market. Robben to score and Holland to win at 8/1 is also likely to be a popular punt.

David Villa has picked up where he left off after winning the Golden Boot at Euro 2008, and Barcelona’s new signing has fired 5 of his country’s 7 goals in this tournament to take his international record to a phenomenal 43 goals in 64 appearances. Such is his pace, technique and intelligence, he’ll always get chances against any side, and he is rightly the hot favourite to score first at 4/1. Villa to score 2 or more could definitely appeal at 9/2, while he is 12/1 to score in both halves and 11/4 to score Spain’s first goal, both of which look good.

Xabi Alonso’s departure from Liverpool was a huge part of their failure last season, and his performances during this World Cup have shown exactly what the Reds have been missing. Having scored a penalty against Paraguay before missing the re-take, Alonso is still yet to score in South Africa, and while he isn’t in the side to provide goals, he certainly has the ability to chip in and looks very backable at 13/2 for a goal at any time. One of the cleaner strikers of a ball in this World Cup and a man with a history of scoring from range, a rasping left foot shot from distance against Germany sticks in the mind, and Alonso to score from outside the box really does stand out as a great bet at 18/1.

The Long Shots

The most obvious market to turn to for a long shot is the Scorecast market, where David Villa to score first and Spain to win 1-0 is the shortest priced selection at 16/1. While that may look like a sensible way to go, the joy of this market is thinking slightly outside the box, and I like the look of Sergio Ramos to score first and Spain to win 2-1 at 190/1. The Real Madrid full back gets forward at every opportunity, is strong and aggressive and will certainly be looking to get his name on the scoresheet. For a slightly less ambitious bet, Ramos to score and Spain to win could be a tempter at 18/1.

Giovanni van Bronckhorst stunned the Germans and the whole world with his sublime long-range strike in the semi-final, and he’ll surely take on a shot from range if the chance comes up in this match. Iker Casillas hasn’t convinced me at all during this campaign and certainly looks vulnerable to shots of any quality, so Van Bronckhorst to score first and Spain to win 2-1 would be my idea for a truly long-odds bet – that one pays an almighty 425/1!

Following the news that England’s Howard Webb will take charge of the 2010 World Cup final, Sky Bet are offering 100/1 for the Yorkshireman to award a penalty in the first minute of play just like Jack Taylor did, who was England’s last referee to be awarded a World Cup Final (1974). Taylor also went on to award two penalties in the match, one for each team and it’s 16/1 for Webb to mirror this on Sunday.

Sky Bet are also offering a market on what Webb will do first. It’s 10/11 for Webb to first award a yellow card, 11/4 that the 38-year-old blows for half-time, 10/3 he awards a goal, 10/1 he awards a penalty and 20/1 he sends a player off before any of the other previous outcomes.

The Premier League referee has so far awarded 17 yellow cards in this World Cup including 8 in the clash between Italy and Slovakia. It’s 6/1 for Webb to show 7 or more cards in Sunday’s big showdown and 14/1 that he doesn’t produce a card. It’s 11/4 that Webb sends a player off at anytime during the match (including extra-time) and 5/2 he awards a penalty.

After the England team’s poor performance at the World Cup, the former police sergeant is the only representative from England in the final. It’s 100/1 for Webb to go on and be crowned the Sports Personality of the Year in 2010.

Sky Bet’s football betting spokesman Tim Reynolds said: “Webb has been flawless in the three matches he’s already taken charge of so it only seems fitting that he has been handed the final especially after some great refereeing performances.” (more…)

Losing semi-finalists Germany and Uruguay would probably rather be on the plane home after the disappointment of this week’s semi-final defeats, but they will have to lift themselves one more time as they do battle for the dubious honour of third place on Saturday night.

Few would have foreseen Uruguay leading the way from their continent, outlasting the likes of Brazil and Argentina in this tournament. The expected South American dominance never really materialised in the end, and their last hope died out this week as Holland and Spain set up the first ever all-European final outside of Europe. Uruguay were beaten 3-2 by Holland on Tuesday night, while Germany narrowly lost out 1-0 to European champions Spain on Wednesday.

The Germans find themselves in the 3rd place play-off for the second consecutive World Cup. Joachim Low’s young side made a huge impact on these finals and are sure to be even stronger in Brazil in 2014. They looked un-stoppable as they hit 4 past Argentina in the quarter-finals, but came up surprisingly short against the Spanish on Wednesday night.

Uruguay will, no doubt, be remembered as the side that knocked out Ghana in controversial circumstances in the quarter finals, but the South Americans played some exciting attacking football in what was their best World Cup showing since 1970. Their defence looked shaky for the first time in the tournament against the Dutch on Tuesday night, and they will have to be at their best to contain the Germans here.

Germany start the match as strong 8/11 favourites, with the draw5/2 and Uruguay as big as 7/2 to win. Those prices are something of a surprise, and given that this is essentially an exhibition match, it’s hard to make too much of a case for backing the Germans at odds-on. Uruguay in the Draw no Bet market look very tempting at 12/5.

This match can still have a massive bearing on the race for the Golden Boot, as Diego Forlan looks to add to his tally of 4 goals and both Thomas Muller and Luis Suarez return to action after suspension. Muller needs 1 goal to catch Sneijder and Villa on 5, while Suarez needs 2. Forlan is 9/4 to score at any time here, while Suarez and Muller are both 12/5, with Suarez particularly appealing at that price.

One player who will not be treating this as a dead rubber is Miroslav Klose. The Bayern Munich striker has already equalled Gerd Muller’s 14 World Cup goals for Germany and one more goal from Klose will equal Ronaldo’s all-time record of 15, which will also put him back in the race for the Golden Boot. Klose is available at 5/4 with Blue Square for a goal at any time, while he is also the favourite in the First Goalscorer market at 9/2.

Both of these sides have impressed with their attacking philosophies during this tournament, and with the pressure off, it would make sense to expect the goals to flow in this one. The prices reflect that with Over 2.5 Goals a 4/6 shot. Not since 1974 has a 3^rd place playoff match yielded less than 3 goals, with 4 or more in 3 of the last 4 World Cups, so a repeat of 4 or more goals could certainly carry lots of appeal at 7/4.

Octopus oracle Paul has predicted wins for Spain and Germany in this weekend’s World Cup final and third-place play-off.

The Oberhausen-based eight-legged tipster has become a global phenomenon after correctly forecasting the results of all six of Germany’s matches at South Africa 2010.

Paul flagged up wins over Argentina, England, Australia and Ghana for Joachim Low’s side and the country’s loss to Serbia.

Since predicting Spain’s victory over Germany, the octopus has become less popular at home, while Spaniards have offered their new-found mascot protection.

And he has rewarded that loyalty by selecting the Euro 2008 champions to beat Holland in the decider and also appeased his paymasters by backing Germany to see off Uruguay.

The world-famous octopus chose a mussel from a glass tank marked with a German flag, after sitting on the Uruguayan tank for a few minutes!

With billions of people expected to tune in around the world for the World Cup final both the BBC and ITV will be battling it out to win their own match in the World Cup Final TV ratings.

And Paddy Power make the men at the Beeb the hot favourites to record more viewers than their ITV rivals with Gary Lineker’s team just 1/5 and Adrian Chiles’ crew the 3/1 outsiders.

Whilst some of the TV offerings served up in the studios have been as predictable as England’s 4-4-2 tactics Paddy Power also offer 4/1 that the whole BBC punditry team of Alan Hansen, Alan Shearer and, er, et al all wear the same colour once shirts on Sunday.

For ITV, it’s 50/1 to again show a commercial during the game and 100/1 to miss a goal – just as they did on their HD channel for England’s tournament opener against USA.

Commentary Cliché
Paddy Power’s famous Commentary Cliché betting continues to go from strength to strength, now generating thousands of pounds of bets.

‘Nelson Mandela’ is the 11/2 favourite to be the first phrase used from Paddy Power’s selected list with ‘Total Football’ following at 11/1. A previous favourite with the legendary John Motson, ‘These are nervous moments’ is 28/1 for an early return, the same price as ‘the future’s orange’, whilst the stock phrase for any fence-sitting man behind the mic ‘he’ll be disappointed with that’ is 33/1.

Previous cliché winners in the tournament so far have included ‘David Beckham’ at 7/1 (England v USA) and ‘Booby Moore’ a 20/1 (England v Germany).

Cephalapod Specials
But arguably the biggest media star of all at the 2010 World Cup is the soothsaying cephalopod Paul the Octopus. Paddy Power are betting whether Paul get’s his World Cup final prediction correct and what might be in store next for the eight-legged prophet. Its 4/5 Paul correctly names the winner of Sunday’s Final, 9/4 he is released into the wild as rewards for his efforts, 10/1 he insures his legs for millions, and 500/1 he is England’s next goalkeeper.

Paddy Power said: “Spain-Holland is one to whet the appetite and, even without England’s flops making it to the final, millions will be gambled. With a prime-time Sunday evening showing on TV it will be the biggest football match bookmakers have ever seen.” (more…)

Spain v Holland Latest

• Paul The Octopus Betting
• Paddy Power’s World Cup Final Money-Back Special

SPAIN are Paddy Power’s 8/15 favourites to win the World Cup.

Following their semi final defeat of Germany Paddy Power make the pre-tournament favourites 11/10 to win in 90 minutes whilst opponents Holland are 6/4 to lift the World Cup outright and 11/4 to win in normal time. The two teams have never met at a World Cup and victory would mean a first World Cup for both nations.

Paddy Power said: “Spain-Holland is one to whet the appetite and, even without England’s flops making it to the final, millions will be gambled. It will be the biggest football match bookmakers have ever seen.”

World Cup Winner
8/15 Spain
6/4 Holland

Paddy Power Specials
With more than 100 markets on offer, as well as the major markets from winner, to correct score and goal scorers Paddy Power also has the betting on all the other talking points ahead of Sunday’s final, including:

• Will Paul the Octopus correctly predict the final, launch his own range of ink pens, or appear in a paella?
• Will Nelson Mandela attend the final?
• Who will be his nation’s hero and score the winning goal in the final?
• Will the BBC’s first Commentary Cliché be “Total Football”
• Will ITV miss a goal in the Final?
• Which famous person will be the first to get seen in the crowd?
• Will Mark Van Bommel finally get sent off?
• Will David Villa or Wesley Sneijder crown their brilliant tournaments with a Man of the Match performance in the final?

PADDY POWER WORLD CUP MONEY-BACK SPECIAL
The Bore Wars – Holland v Spain

If the World Cup Final finishes 0-0 after 90 mins Paddy Power will refund all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on that match.

Terms & Conditions: Applies to 1st/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles placed before kick-off only. Max Refund €/£100 per customer/bet. Paddy Power football rules apply. 90 mins only. (more…)

It’s the second semi-final tonight as European champions Spain take on a German side who have swept all before them on their way to this stage. Gab picks out the best bets ahead of the action:

Having been installed as outsiders against both England and Argentina in the previous two knockout rounds, Germany have been brilliant, scoring 4 times in both matches and looking very much like potential champions. They once again start as outsiders here, a 7/4 shot to win the match with the draw 9/4 and Spain 8/5 favourites.

Spain will be far better at keeping the ball than either England or Argentina were Germany, and key to the Spanish game plan will be Busqets and Alonso controlling possession in the middle of the park. Spain will have to do what Barry and Mascherano both failed to do against the Germans, and that’s get stuck into the Germans and break up their attacks, and that’s exactly the role that Barcelona’s Busquets will given.

Along with Alonso, he will be the key to preventing the German counter attacking that has been so effective in the last two matches, and I think the Spanish system is well suited to stopping this German outfit.

I think Vicente del Bosque will stick with Torres and that makes sense to me, no matter how badly he has played as Fernando Llorente is clearly not on the same level as the Liverpool man. I don’t like to say anyobody is ‘due a goal’ or even a performance, but in Torres’s case I will make an exception. He is fit, there are no off-field problems as far as I am aware, and I really do think that he is an excellent bet to score first at 6/1 with Blue Square.

With so much at stake here, and with yellow cards being wiped so those players already on a card do not miss the final, I can see the cards flowing in this match. Viktor Kassai from Hungary will be in charge tonight, a relatively young and inexperienced referee who was only supposed to be a fourth official from the round of 16 but was promoted after some good performances in the group stage. Therefore I think over 50 on the Total Bookings Points market is a great bet at 13/8. That market works on a system of 10 points for a yellow card and 25 points for a red card.

Gab’s Tips for Day 27

Spain to win in 90 minutes – 8/5

Over 50 Total Bookings Points – 13/8

Fernando Torres to score 1^st – 6/1

Xabi Alonso to be Man of the Match – 14/1

Germany appear to have had an about-turn in their stance towards forthcoming opponents. Finally, through Bastian Schweinsteiger, they have approached a game complimenting the team they are about to take on. After mocking and then soundly beating both England and Argentina, the midfielders assertions that Spain are the World’s best hint at a change in tact. German coach Joachim Low has also asserted the notion that Spain should be the match favourites!

The Spanish were the pre-tournament market leaders and more than ten points shorter in the betting than their Semi-Final opponents. An outright market that once again under estimated a German side that nearly always make the last four. The balance has been restored for this clash having had nearly four weeks to assess the relative merits of each squad. A fraction of a price separates Spain as 13/8 favourites, as Low suggests, and Germany as minimal 7/4 outsiders on the ‘match result’ market.

The draw is 11/5 with Blue Square, who price an extra-time victory at 10/1 for Spain and a point bigger for Germany (11/1). A penalty shoot-out, something that always seem to feature for the Germans in a major tournament, is 9/1 to go their way and 10/1 to go the way of the Spanish whose history is littered with disappointments from 12-yards.

The standard question on the ‘total goals’ market is under or over 2.5? Germany have scored enough in five matches to secure an average of ‘over’ on their own. Low’s side have more than doubled Spain’s total in their matches against what, on paper, looked like stronger opposition. Spain’s six goals have the name of David Villa stamped on all but one strike, that one coming from Andres Iniesta. Fernando Torres’ name will not feature high on the list of players to showcase their skills in the Rainbow Nation so far, but he potentially has the chance of 180 minutes to set things straight.

Torres is 6/1 with Blue Square to score first in this game against the team he struck against to bring glory to his country in Euro 2008. Miroslav Klose is an identical price to break the deadlock and add to his ever increasing Finals’ tally.

The sides have each conceded a total of two goals at the tournament, including goals in 1-0 defeats in their group stage matches. The Germans are insisting that this new breed of counter attacking football was the plan all along but they haven’t faced masters of possession football like Spain yet. Vincente Del Bosque’s team had nearly 60% of the game in their Quarter-Final against Paraguay and hold the record for the most shots on goal in the tournament up until now.

The German midfield stopped short of mounting Gareth Barry and Javier Mascherano on hunting trophies in their previous two games as they toyed with the two Barclay’s Premier League players. Spain will offer a sterner test as they’ll more than likely stick with the sensible policy of two holding in the middle. It promises to be a fascinating clash of styles.

And then there were four! Gabriele Marcotti runs the rule over the first of two exciting World Cup Semi-Finals. We get Gab’s best tips on the Blue Square markets for Uruguay versus Holland:

Well I’m not surprised the market in this match has written off Uruguay. I think punters like to stick with the players they know and Holland are full of those kind of stars. But 5/1 for the South American’s to win suggests the wrong kind of percentage. I’d back them to win more than once in six matches with what I think is an average Dutch side. It’s slightly negative of me to question the form of this World Cup but I still see flaws in the four teams that have made it this far. Holland hadn’t really beaten anybody of note until a mad second-half against Brazil which completely changed the flow of the game on one incident. The best bet in this game is to back Uruguay on the ‘draw no bet’ market.

I’m expecting goals in this game and I like the offer of odds-against (21-20) for ‘both teams to score’. Uruguay have half their starting defence out and Holland are missing two good holding midfielders. Looking at both sides I think headed goals could play a part and would back ‘header’ at 4/1 on Blue Square’s ‘first goal method’ market.

Both of these sides draw fouls from opponents and both like to get stuck in when they don’t have the ball. I expect a few cards her and would take advantage of the 11/8 with Blue Square on ‘over 50’ bookings points.

Gab’s Tips for Day 26

Uruguay to beat Holland – Draw No Bet
Header – First Goal Method – Uruguay v Holland
Both Teams To Score – Uruguay v Holland
Over 50 Bookings Points – Uruguay v Holland

The first team into the World Cup Final will be confirmed on Tuesday night when Uruguay, the last of the South American contingent left in the competition, take on a Dutch side who dumped out Brazil in the quarter-finals.

Uruguay reached this semi-final in the most controversial of circumstances, Luis Suarez’s goal line handball denying Ghana a certain goal right at the end of extra time, and after Asamoah Gyan missed the resulting penalty, his pitch-side celebrations were hard to stomach for Ghana and the whole African continent.

With his team-mates having won through on a penalty shootout, Suarez will now be banned for his country’s first World Cup semi-final for 40 years, and that’s a big blow for a side whose campaign has been built on a counter-attacking 4-3-3 formation. Even so, it is still something of a surprise to see Uruguay as big as 11/2 to win in 90 minutes, while the draw is 5/2 and Holland are 8/13 favourites.

Another reason for the big price about the Uruguayans is a suspension for full back Jorge Fucile of Porto, one of their outstanding performers in their run to this semi-final, and he will be a big miss for his side. Also struggling with injury is skipper and inspirational centre back Diego Lugano, and you just feel that the lack of depth in the squad may catch up with them here – Holland to qualify at 3/10 is bound to be a popular bet.

If Uruguay are to persist with the 3-pronged attack that has served them so well so far in this tournament, the man to replace Suarez will be Sebastián Abreu, the veteran striker who coolly chipped home the winning penalty against Ghana. The Botafogo man has 26 goals from 58 international appearances – a better strike rate than Diego Forlan’s – and Blue Square’s 3/1 about him to score at any time in the 90 minutes could be a shrewd punt. The giant hitman is 14/1 to score a header, another bet that should offer a really good run for your money.

The undoubted star of the show for the South Americans is Diego Forlan, the man whose brilliant free kick levelled the game against Ghana, and if his side are to progress past Holland and into the final, it surely needs another big performance from the Atletico Madrid man. Forlan is 2/1 to score in this match, 10/1 to score from outside the box again, and 14/1 to score 2 or more goals.

Holland’s campaign has been built on a combination of solid defending and incisive play going forward, a far cry from their massively entertaining, but ultimately flawed approach during Euro 2008 where they fell at the quarter-final stage. A far more pragmatic system has seen them concede just 3 goals in 5 matches – all of which they have won – so Holland to keep a clean sheet is bound to be a popular choice at 4/5.

Right back Gregory Van Der Wiel and holding midfielder Nigel de Jong have both had a major part to play in those decent defensive displays so far, though both players were booked against Brazil and will have to sit this one out. I’d suggest that might upset the Dutch system somewhat, and personally I’d rather back the Goal Crazy – that’s both teams to score – at 21/20 than go for the Dutch clean sheet.

Arjen Robben didn’t start any of his country’s group matches, but he was the inspiration for the side against Slovakia – so much so that the Slovakian coach Vladimir Weiss described him as a genius – and after another fine display in that quarter-final win over Brazil, he’ll take some stopping here. The former Chelsea winger is 6/4 to score in the match, and a very tempting 16/1 to be fouled for a penalty – something that is always on the cards with such a talented dribbler.

Having trailed Brazil at half time in their quarter-final, it was Wesley Sneijder whose free kick was headed into his own net by Felipe Melo before the Inter man added the winner 15 minutes later, and he really is the heartbeat of this team. A 7/4 shot to score at any time here, I’d rather back the 7/2 about him to be man of the match considering his current form has seen him installed as 3/1 second favourite for Player of the Tournament.

My idea for a Correct Score in this match would probably be 2-1 to Holland, a 15/2 shot with Blue Square, while for a long shot you could do worse than Diego Forlan to score first and Holland to win 2-1, which pays 70/1.