EU Politics

With every likelihood that Máire Geoghegan-Quinn will be appointed Ireland’s new European Union commissioner Paddy Power have turned their attention to what portfolio the former minister will be given.

The bookies have installed Agriculture & Rural Development as their 4/1 favourite followed by Administrative Affairs, Audit, & Anti-Fraud at 9/2 and Employment, Social Affairs, & Equal Opportunities at 5/1. (more…)

Herman Van Rompuy looks to be the man to beat as the race to be the historic first President of the EU enters its final furlong.

As Europe’s 27 leaders, including the pivotal king-makers Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, gather to cast their vote tomorrow the betting at bookmaker Paddy Power suggests the Belgian PM Herman Van Rompuy is a hot favourite at just 4/9 to be crowned.

Van Rompuy was a late entry in the Presidential race having been a relatively untouched 33/1 outsider in the first few months of betting. However knowledgeable punters began to lump on him two weeks ago, pushing his price all the way down to favouritism as Tony Blair’s star began to wane. Hailing from a similar centre-right political ideology as three of the big four European leaders – Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Nicolas Sarkozy and Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi it is widely perceived that they would want to appoint a figure who would help shape the Europe they themselves envision.

Blair Betting

Having been as short as 4/6 for the historic post before French President Sarkozy withdrew his support of the former British PM’s bid, Blair had drifted out to as big as 7/1 in the last week. But some late favour and reports suggesting his bid may not yet be dead in the water has seen Blair backed back in to 4/1 in the last 48 hours. Although Blair has received twice as many bets as the next most popular runner, Van Rompuy, it is perhaps telling that the Belgian has seen more money actually placed on him.

The two other live contenders in the betting would appear to be one time favourite Dutch PM Jan Peter Balkenende at 8/1 and Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg at 7/1.

Darren Haines, spokesman for Paddy Power, said: “Blair may not quite be out of the running just yet but all the signs from what has been a popular betting market suggest it is Van Rompuy that will be Europe’s historic first president.” (more…)

Paddy Power has seen Tony Blair usurped in the betting for the first President of the EU as Europe’s king-makers turn away from the former British PM.

Having been as short as 4/6 for the historic post Tony Blair now finds himself the 11/4 second favourite as key supporters such as French leader Nicolas Sarkozy distance themselves from the Blair bid. The new favourite is Dutch PM Jan Peter Balkenende at 9/4.

Balkenende has long been a front-runner having never been bigger than 9/2 since Paddy Power’s book opened a month ago. A strong advantage for the Dutch leader is that his political ideology resides in a similar centre-right party as three of the big four European leaders – Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Nicolas Sarkozy and Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi.

Darren Haines, spokesman for Paddy Power, said: “Having failed to win over the crucial support of Angela Merkel, Blair’s bid is beginning to look doomed. Europe’s king-makers are perhaps fearful that a Blair appointment would make an already Euro-septic British public even more resentful towards them and the shrewd money has been coming for Balkenende all weekend.”

Naughty Norfolk Selection Scandal

Meanwhile back home, with Tory grassroots threatening to revolt in Norfolk, Paddy Power is now offering 5/6 that Conservative candidate Elizabeth Truss is de-selected from contesting the safe Tory seat of South West Norfolk following revelations of failing to declare an extra-marital affair. (more…)

As the Blair Bandwagon rolls on in his bid to be the first President of the EU bookie Paddy Power is tipping German Chancellor Angela Merkel to be the next world figure to publicly back the former British prime minister.

Having kept her powder dry to date, Merkel is 9/4 to follow in the footsteps of Nicolas Sarkozy, Silvio Berlusconi and Gordon Brown and be the next to publicly declare support for Blair. Germany’s support is seen by Blair allies as critical in securing his position in the face of strong opposition from Belgium and Luxembourg.

Other names in the running to back Blair include President Obama at 5/2, current president of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso at 6/1 and Lisbon Treaty rebel Vaclav Klaus of the Czech Republic at 10/1.

Other names not so closely involved in the race but always ready with an opinion include Bono at 8/1 and Nick Griffin at 20/1 whilst The Pope is 100/1 and Osama Bin Laden a 500/1 outsider.

Il Presidente Punting

Blair remains the hot favourite at Evens to secure the historic post although, as the competition hots up, his odds have drifted form a previous 4/6. Blair’s closest rivals are currently seen as Dutch PM Jan Peter Balkenende and Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker at 9/2 and 5/1 respectively.

Darren Haines, spokesman for Paddy Power, said: “As ever Blair is playing a shrewd game and letting others do his dirty work for him but the betting is starting to suggest the bandwagon is well on its way to becoming an unstoppable force as more leaders step out of the shadows to support him.” (more…)

Mary Coughlan might have been mooted by French President Nicolas Sarkozy for the role of Agricultural Commissioner but bookmaker Paddy Power are betting it’s unlikely the Tanaiste will be booted to Brussels by Taoiseach Brian Cowen for the EU role.

Nonetheless the recent lobbying by EU circles has prompted Paddy Power to install the Tanaiste into the betting at 6/1 to become the next EU Commissioner. Former Minister for Tourism, Transport and Communications Maire Geoghegan Quinn remains the favourite for the post at odds of 2/7.

Paddy Power said: “It’s a decision that Taoiseach Brian Cowen will need to consider carefully but sending Mary Coughlan would mean a by-election and possibly the loss of a valuable Dail seat at what many are calling a difficult time for the government.”

The odds on Ireland receiving the Agricultural EU Commissionership are 7/1. (more…)

As Europe moves ever closer to becoming a political superstate former PM Tony Blair has been backed into odds on favourite to land the historic post of being the first President of the EC, reports Paddy Power.

Blair has been the long time favourite for most of the summer in the race but punters sense some shrewd political manoeuvring on Blair’s part, backing him down to just 4/6 from 9/4 over the last few days. A Blair victory would also be a victory for punters with over 60% of the money riding on the Brit.

Jan Peter Balkenende is the latest name being seen as Blair’s most likely challenger. The Dutch Prime Minister is 4/1 to be appointed. Former candidate for that position, Jean-Claude Juncker, has drifted in the betting from a previous 3/1 out to 11/2 as his backers in the market dry up.

Darren Haines, spokesman for Paddy Power, said: “Contenders may come and go but the one name punters want to back for EC president is Blair. It seems to have come as no surprise to them that this is the job Blair perhaps wanted all along.” (more…)

Former Minister for Tourism, Transport and Communications, Maire Geoghegan Quinn, has been gambled into 9/2 joint second-favourite to become Ireland’s next EU Commissioner according to bookies Paddy Power. The Galway native who now lives in Luxemborg had been 7/1 in their betting but a sustained gamble over the weekend saw her odds slashed into 9/2. Pat Cox remains the even-money favourite with Pat “the Cope” Gallagher sharing second favouritism with Geoghegan Quinn.

Paddy Power said “Some very shrewd punters filled their boots with the 7/1 on offer on Maire Geoghegan Quinn over the weekend and have left us with a payout in excess of €5,000 should she get the nod” (more…)

The wheels are in motion for the full ratification of the Lisbon Treaty now that Ireland has passed it by an overwhelming majority of 67.1%. Poland and the Czech Republic are the only remaining countries left who have yet to say ‘yes’ with the balance lying in the Czech court.

So far President Vaclav Klaus is refusing to sign the Treaty but bookies Paddy Power are certain it’s only a matter of time before he does and are quoting just 1/5 that the Czech Republic will ratify the Treaty.

However, a delay could throw a spanner in the works with David Cameron signalling he may put a referendum forward to the British people if he is elected Prime Minister in next year’s UK elections. Paddy Power are betting 2/1 that the UK will hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

Meanwhile, former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair remains the bookies hot favourite at 8/11 to become the first permanent President of the EC. Other candidates thought to be in the running for the job include Prime Minister of Luxembourg Jean Claude Juncker at 5/1 and former Irish President Mary Robinson at 14/1. (more…)