Blue Square

Luton Town v York City – Sunday 20^th May(kick-off 3pm)

Here are the thoughts of Alan Alger From Blue Square:

Although the tension, drama and ultimate prize of a place in the Football League makes them unmissable, it’s entirely fair to say that during the first four seasons of our sponsorship of the Football Conference we have not been blessed with a genuine classic Promotion Final. Since Morecambe’s thrilling comeback against Exeter City, the season before Blue Square became sponsors, the finals have been tense affairs in which some sides have just not ‘turned up’ on the day! Exeter City of course came back from that disappointment in 2007 to win the 2008 version – complete with new Blue Square branding. Luton Town will be aiming to become the second side to complete that 12-month turnaround after losing out to AFC Wimbledon in a penalty shoot-out last year. With York City losing to Oxford United two years ago this final features the last two sides to lose in this game. The prices for Sunday’s match suggest we are in for another game that could go ‘all the way’. We cannot split the two teams and we quote 5/6 for each to earn promotion. The 90-minute match prices are also in line with that expectation. Both sides are 8/5 to win the game whilst the draw is on offer at 11/5. We of course like to cover all the eventualities and either team can be backed to win in extra-time at 9/1 or via a penalty shoot-out at 11/1.

This will be the tenth Conference Premier Promotion Final and only 21 goals have been scored in normal time in the previous nine. That’s an average of just 2.33 per 90-minute game, which is in sharp contrast to an overall figure of just over 2.8 per game in regular season matches. A stat which makes the Blue Square Bet Premier the highest scoring professional division in the whole country. It’s natural to expect that figure to drop off for such an important game though. We make ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ the 8/11 favourite on our ‘Total Goals’ market for Sunday’s final. A repeat of last year’s goalless game is offered at 8/1 on our ‘Correct Score’ prices. Four of the last eight teams to be in this final have failed to score in the game. Our popular ‘Both Teams To Score’ special is priced at 4/6, but has recent history up against it. Last Sunday Gainsborough Trinity felt the full force of an historical jinx – which has never seen the winner of the Blue Square Bet North Promotion Final come from the semi-final contested by the 3^rd and 4^th placed teams. That’s now 8 years where either the 2^nd or 5^th placed team have earned a place in the Premier. Luton Town have a similar hoodoo to bury as no team that has finished 5^th in the final table has gone on to win this final since that second promotion spot was added in the 2002-03 season.

It’s very tight at the top of the market for the ‘First Goalscorer’ at Wembley and Luton’s Stuart Fleetwood is just edging favouritism at a price of 13/2. We then have four players at 7/1 including teammate Andre Gray and former Hatter Jason Walker – who played in last season’s final and missed a penalty in the shoot-out. George Pilkington stung Blue Square with his penalty at Wrexham as he had been well-backed to get the first goal at 33/1 at the Racecourse. We’re not being as generous for the final BUT… if he does still have the role from 12yards then 20/1 might still be a value bet. Matty Blair has scored some important goals for York this season but none more so than the one which took them to this final in extra-time at Mansfield. Blair is 8/1 to score in any York City victory in normal time. A full list of ‘Player Specials’ are available on the Blue Square site – including players to score, hit the woodwork, get booked – you name it we’ve got it.

York City have met Luton six times in the division over the last three years and also in a two-legged FA Trophy semi-final tie during this campaign. Luton have been victorious just once, when a nine-man York team were thrashed 5-0 at Kenilworth Road after losing goalkeeper Michael Ingham early on in the game, back in the middle of the 2010/11 season. The Minstermen didn’t have a goalkeeper on their bench and will feel that the result was harsh on them and their makeshift stopper Chris Smith. That aside they do hold a recent advantage over the Hatters with three wins and a draw in this season’s meetings between the two. That includes a 3-0 win at Bootham Crescent earlier in the campaign. The clubs were only separated by two points in the final table so any real advantage could be minimal. City completed their FA Trophy journey with a victory here at Wembley last Saturday and aim to become the first team to win both finals in the same season which would be an incredible achievement for Gary Mills’ side. Opposite number Paul Buckle saw his unbeaten run as Luton manager ended at Wrexham in the play-off semi-finals but that 2^nd leg defeat was not the worst way to lose his first game since arriving at the club as the ultimate aim of a place in this final was achieved on aggregate. It was a hectic start for the former Torquay boss but he will have had the luxury of 12 days without a game to get his squad in the right frame of mind to perform on the day. He, of course, knows what the occasion is all about having won here with the Gulls in 2009.

Overall our prices against the general market do favour York City, but only because we are calling this a level game, in contrast to the majority of the market who have Luton as clear favourites. I feel this looks far closer to call so it looks as though we are in for a great final. I can see Luton Town scoring first in the game but then being pegged back to a draw in the second-half. I think the match will end 1-1. I can also see a goal for each team in Extra-Time and the match requiring a Penalty Shoot-Out. I’d advise backing both teams to win on spot-kicks and at the end of Extra-Time you will be on a winning bet either way – much the same as last year’s advice. I feel both teams know how to defend well and at crucial stages this could be the deciding factor that takes this beyond 120 minutes with neither team wanting to make a mistake.

BEST BETS FOR THE BLUE SQUARE BET PREMIER PROMOTION FINAL

DRAW – Luton Town v York City

1-1 DRAW – Correct Score

LUTON/YORK TO WIN PROMOTION ON PENALTY SHOOT-OUT – (Combined) Method of Victory

Euro 2012
Refund as a free bet, if your team is knocked out on penalties*

*This offer is open to both new and existing Blue Square customers. Blue Square will refund all outright bets on the Euro 2012 winner up to £100 if your team is knocked out on penalties. Offer applies to bets placed before the opening match: Friday 8^th June, 5pm. Offer applies to win, or win part, of an each way bet. Refunds will be matched 100% on stakes, with a maximum refund of £100 per customer regardless of the number of bets placed. Refunds will be in the form of a free bet token. If the offer triggers the free bet token must be used on any Sportsbook market within 30 days of the token going into your account. Further terms & conditions apply.

Premier League final day – Sunday 13th May
Money Back Special
If Man Utd win the league, Blue Square will refund* all losing 1st goalscorer, correct score, HT/FT & player special bets as free bets in the following games:
Manchester City v QPR
Sunderland v Man Utd

*This offer is open to both new and existing Blue Square customers. Blue Square will match all losing first goalscorer, correct score, HT/FT, and player special bets up to £50 if Man Utd win the league(Sunday 13th May, 2012). Offer applies to bets placed prior to kick off. Refunds will be matched 100% on stakes with a maximum refund of £50 per customer regardless of the number of bets placed. Refunds will be in the form of a free bet token. If the offer triggers the free bet token must be used on any Sportsbook market within 7 days of the token going into your account. Further terms & conditions apply.

Champions League Final – Bayern Munich v Chelsea, 19th May 2012
If Arjen Robben scores the first goal in the Champions League Final, Blue Square will refund all losing bets on selected markets*

*This offer is open to both new and existing Blue Square customers. Blue Square will match all losing first goalscorer, correct score, HT/FT, and player special bets up to £50 if Robben scores the first goal in the Champions League Final(19/05/12). Offer applies to bets placed prior to kick off. Refunds will be matched 100% on stakes with a maximum refund of £50 per customer regardless of the number of bets placed. Refunds will be in the form of a free bet token. If the offer triggers the free bet token must be used on any Sportsbook market within 7 days of the token going into your account.

WEDNESDAY 7.30pm – YORK CITY v MANSFIELD TOWN

York City meet third placed Mansfield Town in the Blue Square Bet Premier play-off semi-finals and it promises to be a close affair. The two sides were inseparable in two regular season games which both resulted in draws. Mansfield as the form team in the division over the last few months have moved into a position as favourites to join champions Fleetwood Town in League 2. Blue Square are quoting them at 9/4 with City as 11/4 shots just ahead of old foes Luton Town who, unusually for them, find themselves as 10/3 outsiders. York are 6/5 favourites to make home advantage count in the first leg, with Mansfield as 15/8 outsiders, a very probable draw is priced at 12/5. As for who will prevail after the two-legs – Blue Square quote Mansfield as the 4/5 favourites, with York ever so slightly behind them at 10/11 to reach Wembley for a second time this season. The similar chance of each club can also be illustrated by the odds for the first goalscorer at Bootham Crescent on Wednesday evening. Jason Walker and Matt Green are the 11/2 joint favourites. Green is just 7/2 to get on the scoresheet in a victory for the away side. Matty Blair has had a fantastic season for The Minstermen and he features in a number of exclusive Blue Square player specials on the game. Blair is 12/1 to score from outside the box and 13/2 to get York’s first goal on the night. York’s home record for the season is only the 8^th best in the division despite their finish in 4^th. They’ve only won two games at home to their fellow top 10 sides. In contrast Mansfield have been beaten just three times when visiting teams in the top half of the final table. The Stags have won five of their last six away games including a comprehensive 3-0 victory away at Kidderminster Harriers on the final day. An incredible 10 matches during Mansfield’s season have finished with a 1-1 scoreline, that’s nearly a quarter of their games – the price for that outcome in the first leg is 13/2. York have drawn five games by that 1-1 scoreline too, so it could be the best correct score bet on what is likely to be a very cagey night.

THURSDAY 7.30pm – LUTON TOWN v WREXHAM

With 17 points separating them in the regular table some might see Luton’s Blue Square Bet Premier play-off semi-final clash with Wrexham as a tough task for the Hatters. Pre-season turmoil at The Racecourse Ground lengthened Wrexham’s promotion odds to 14/1, whilst Luton were once again amongst the favourites to gain a place back in the Football League. A lot has changed since then, including in the managerial hot-seat at both clubs. Andy Morrell stepping up to the plate when  Dean Saunders left for Doncaster Rovers and more recently Paul Buckle replacing Gary Brabin at Kenilworth Road. Buckle remains unbeaten as Luton manager as he hauled his side into the play-offs after it looked as though they would miss out. The odds for Luton to achieve promotion went as high as 9/1 before settling as the 100/30 outsiders of the four play-off teams following Saturday’s all-important win at champions Fleetwood Town. Luton are the 13/10 favourites to gain a first leg advantage over their semi-final opponents, something they achieved in spectacular fashion last year albeit away from home. A repeat of that 3-0 scoreline is offered at 20/1. Blue Square make Wrexham the 8/11 favourites to go through after the two games, with Luton quoted at Evens. Andre Gray has been in fantastic form since signing from Hinckley and he is 13/8 to score at any time in the first leg. Stuart Fleetwood is the 11/2 favourite to be first goalscorer on Thursday night in front of the Premier Sports TV cameras. Robbie Willmott scored one of the most important goals of the season when netting in the 1-0 home win over Kidderminster and he is 5/1 to score in any Luton victory on Blue Square’s exclusive Score/Win double market. Wrexham not only showed their superiority to Luton in the final league table but also in their two regular season meetings too. The Red Dragons ran out 1-0 winners at Kenilworth Road back in October and then completed a double with a 2-0 home win in early March which started the run which ultimately ended Gary Brabin’s reign. Wrexham are 13/2 to record another 1-0 win in Bedfordshire to give themselves a first leg advantage. Jake Speight and Mathias Pogba are both 13/2 to score the first goal on the night although it’s unlikely both will start. Adrian Cieslewicz has scored some important goals for his team during the course of the season and is 3/1 to score at any time on Thursday night. Despite both clubs having the best defensive records in the division, a 2-2 draw looks like a value bet at 14/1 on a night when goals could flow.

Best Bets for York City v Mansfield Town:

DRAW – York City v Mansfield Town

1-1 DRAW – Correct-Score

MATTY BLAIR – To score York’s first goal

Best Bets for Luton Town v Wrexham:

DRAW – Luton Town v Wrexham

2-2 DRAW – Correct Score

ADRIAN CIESLEWICZ – To score at any time

This is the tenth season of the Football Conference play-offs and over the next few weeks we will see the four teams who finished 2^nd to 5^th in the Blue Square Bet Premier table battle it out to join champions Fleetwood Town in League 2. Luton Town secured the final play-off berth on the final day of the regular season and the prices for which of the quartet – the rest of which is made up by York City, Mansfield Town and Wrexham – will gain promotion are extremely close indeed. Form team Mansfield are Blue Square’s 9/4 favourites and they will begin with a trip to York on Wednesday. The two sides could not be separated with two draws in their league campaigns. York are 11/4 to go up, with most people complimenting them as one of the best footballing sides in the section. League runners-up Wrexham looked to have found their scoring boots again at the weekend and they aim for revenge over Luton who beat them at this stage last year. Wrexham are the 5/2 second-favourites to win the play-offs and Luton Town are, unusually for them, the outsiders at 10/3. Once again it’s going to be hard to judge how much of a turnaround Paul Buckle has achieved at Kenilworth Road, but one thing we can definitely say is that clean sheets – now five on the spin – are a massive plus.

TEAM BY TEAM GUIDE

WREXHAM

Wrexham have had a couple of weeks to get over the disappointment of missing out on automatic promotion. Their points tally for the season would have secured them the title in seven of the last 10 seasons in the division and they now hold the runners-up record. That will of course mean nothing to their fans if they fail at this hurdle. The Red Dragons appeared at this stage last year but their hopes were quickly dashed with a 3-0 home defeat to Luton in the first leg, they have the same semi-final opponents this time around. Being at home for the second leg could be in their favour but they’ll need to keep it tight at Kenilworth Road. They will be encouraged by the fact that Luton have yet to score against them this season.

What the manager says: ANDY MORRELL – “If you are going to go up you have to beat the best and Luton face us off the back of beating the champions Fleetwood. “We go into the play-offs off the back of two good performances, we should be on the front foot now. “The lads who were here last year know about the heartache and disappointment, they know we’ve got to be more solid and at our game to make up for that this time. “It’s now a bit of a lottery but we have to go and play as well as we have done all season.”

Seasonal head to head versus the other play-off teams – P6 W2 D1 L3 F4 A8 Pts7

BLUE SQUARE PRICES – To be promoted 5/2, To make the final 8/11

MANSFIELD TOWN

The Stags can be considered the form team going into the play-offs, in fact they are the form team of the last few months in the whole division and even outperformed champions Fleetwood Town from the turn of the year. The table from January 1^st would have Paul Cox’s side two points clear of the already promoted Lancashire side. Third place this season is a vast improvement on three consecutive mid-table finishes and it now feels that Cox has started to build a team to last, regardless of the outcome of the play-offs. Six straight wins is the best form that has ever been carried into the semi-finals and they should also be buoyed by the fact that third position has been the most successful down the years. A vast improvement in their away form has seen them defeated just four times on the road and they’ve ended the season unbeaten against their fellow play-off contenders.

What the manager says: PAUL COX – “I don’t know why we’ve been made favourites. “I suppose it’s the form we are coming into it with. “I am not trying to play mind games, you have to look at how long the other three clubs have been putting their squads together. “You’ve got to pick Wrexham as favourites for the season they’ve had. “Taking nothing away from us but in preparation terms we are the babies of the play-offs. “My squad don’t seem to be scared or anxious about these games though. “Field Mill will be like a cauldron on Monday, the football club is buzzing and the town is buzzing.”

Seasonal head to head versus the other play-off teams – P6 W2 D4 L0 F9 A5 Pts10

BLUE SQUARE PRICES – To be promoted 9/4favs, To make the final 4/5

YORK CITY

York come out best of the four play-off teams in a head-to-head comparison from the regular season. Gary Mills’ side completed a double over Luton and also managed a win away at runners-up Wrexham. The other three matches ended in draws included a Christmas double-header with semi-final opponents Mansfield. Last season it was their away from that let them down as they eventually finished 8^th in the table. In contrast this season their away form has improved to the extent that they would be 3^rd place in a table just based on those games. Their home form would have them as low as 8^th and that would be a concern going into Wednesday night’s first leg. They kept 12 clean-sheets at home last season and were also in double-figures the year before that but a more attacking style of play sees them with just eight at Bootham Crescent this season. They have the right players to unlock games in a cup tie situation though as we’ve seen from their progress to the FA Trophy final.

What the manager says: GARY MILLS – “These games are massive for this football club. “We’ve earned the right to be playing Mansfield in this semi-final, we know the prize on offer, we want to get to Wembley again. “We have got so much to play for and we are really looking forward to it. “We were behind in both matches against them in the league and had to show a bit of character to earn a point both times, but once we were a bit braver we got the ball down and dominated those games. “We’ve got ourselves prepared for the first game and I think it’s important that we take a lead to theirs on Monday. “I’m always confident that we can score goals.”

Seasonal head to head versus the other play-off teams – P6 W3 D3 L0 F11 A4 Pts12

BLUE SQUARE PRICES – To be promoted 11/4, To make the final 10/11

LUTON TOWN

A third season in the play-offs and a third manager in the Kenilworth Road hot-seat trying to return the club back to the Football League. In Paul Buckle they have a manager that has successfully negotiated this hurdle before which is an advantage he holds over the bosses at the other three clubs in contention. It’s been a season of under-achievement for the side as a whole, recording the lowest ever finish in their history, but at least a sense of positivity has been fostered by the team going on an unbeaten run under the former Torquay man. The Hatters carry five clean sheets into the promotion shoot-out and it’s nearly 500 minutes of football since keeper Mark Tyler was picking the ball out of his net. As one of the best stoppers at this level he will be a huge asset for them. The stats say that they haven’t beaten any of the other three teams in the play-offs this season, but Buckle would rightly argue that he wasn’t in charge for any of those six games – the hard work starts now though.

What the manager says: PAUL BUCKLE – “The realism is we’ve done nothing yet. “We’ve put ourselves in a strong position, we’ve got to stick together and give everything to see if we can get into that final. “From what I saw and witnessed a few weeks ago it didn’t look as if we’d be able to do this, but it goes to show you if you work hard you don’t know where it can take you. “The games just keep getting bigger and bigger for me, the club and the fans and it’s going to continue. “It’s going to be epic. “I know from experience that you need a lot of luck in these games, but the biggest thing for me is that we are actually there and now we have to make it count.”

Seasonal head to head versus the other play-off teams – P6 W0 D2 L4 F2 A9 Pts2

BLUE SQUARE PRICES – To be promoted 10/3, To make the final Evens

TEN STATS FOR THE TENTH YEAR OF THE CONFERENCE PLAY-OFFS

1. NO TEAM HAS EVER WON THE PLAY-OFFS FROM A FIFTH PLACED FINISH IN THE FINAL TABLE.
2. SIX OF THE PREVIOUS 18 SEMI-FINALS HAVE BEEN SETTLED ON A PENALTY SHOOT-OUT, BUT NONE SINCE 2007.
3. LUTON TOWN ARE THE FIRST TEAM TO APPEAR IN THREE CONSECUTIVE SEASON’S OF THE PLAY-OFFS.
4. THE NINE PREVIOUS WINNERS HAVE ALL STAYED IN THE FOOTBALL LEAGUE.
5. FOUR OF THE NINE LOSING FINALISTS NOW PLY THEIR TRADE IN THE FOOTBALL LEAGUE.
6. WITH FIVE WINS IN THE NINE FINALS, THE THIRD PLACED TEAM IN THE REGULAR SEASON TABLE HAS BEEN MOST SUCCESSFUL.
7. THE SEMI-FINAL MATCHES AVERAGE JUST 2.55 GOALS PER GAME, WAY UNDER THE REGULAR SEASON TOTAL.
8. THE LAST SEVEN FAVOURITES FOR THE PLAY-OFF STAGE HAVE FAILED TO WIN PROMOTION.
9. AFC WIMBLEDON’S 8-1 THRASHING OF FLEETWOOD TOWN LAST YEAR WAS THE HIGHEST SCORING SEMI-FINAL AGGREGATE.
10. SEVEN OF THE PREVIOUS 18 SEMI-FINAL FIRST LEGS HAVE ENDED IN DRAWS.

FA CUP FINAL SPECIAL
If either Luis Suarez or Fernando Torres score the 1st goal, Blue Square will refund all losing 1st goalscorer, correct score, HT/FT, and player special bets as free bets*

*This offer is open to both new and existing Blue Square customers. Blue Square will match all losing first goalscorer, correct score, HT/FT, and player special bets up to £50 if Luis Suarez or Fernando Torres score the first goal of the game(Saturday 5th May 2012). Offer applies to bets placed prior to kick off. Refunds will be matched 100% on stakes with a maximum refund of £50 per customer regardless of the number of bets placed. Refunds will be in the form of a free bet token. Further terms & conditions apply.

Man City v Man Utd – 30th April 2012
If Carlos Tevez scores the 1st goal, Blue Square will refund all losing 1st goalscorer, correct score, HT/FT & player special bets as free bets*

*This offer is open to both new and existing Blue Square customers. Blue Square will match all losing first goalscorer, correct score, HT/FT and player special bets up to £50 if Carlos Tevez scores the first goal of the game(Monday, 30th April 2012). Offer applies to bets placed prior to kick off. Refunds will be matched 100% on stakes with a maximum refund of £50 per customer regardless of the number of bets placed. Refunds will be in the form of a free bet token. Further terms & conditions apply.

On Tuesday night Chelsea face Barcelona in the 2^nd leg of the Champions League semi-final. Blue Square have the following offer in place for the game:

DIDIER DROGBA MONEY BACK SPECIAL
IF DIDIER DROGBA GETS BOOKED AT ANYTIME, BLUE SQUARE WILL REFUND ALL LOSING 1^st GOALSCORER, CORRECT SCORE, HT/FT & PLAYER SPECIAL BETS AS FREE BETS*

*This offer is open to both new and existing Blue Square customers. Blue Square will match all losing first goalscorer, correct score, HT/FT and player special bets up to £50 if Didier Drogba gets booked at anytime against Barcelona (Tuesday 24^th April). Offer applies to bets placed prior to kick off. Refunds will be matched 100% on stakes with a maximum refund of £50 per customer regardless of the number of bets placed. Refunds will be in the form of a free bet token. Further terms & conditions apply.

Arsenal v Chelsea
Money-Back Special
If Robin Van Persie scores the last goal against Chelsea, Blue square will refund all losing bets*

* This offer is open to both new and existing Blue Square customers. Blue Square will match all losing first goalscorer, correct score, HT/FT and player special bets up to £50 if Van Persie scores the last goal against Chelsea. Refunds will be matched 100% on stakes with a maximum refund of £50 per customer regardless of the number of bets placed. Refunds will be in the form of a free bet token. Further terms & conditions apply.