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(expired)Ryder Cup 2010: In-depth betting guide – Hints and tips 1-3 Oct 2010

Betting on the Ryder Cup is very different to a usual golf tournament, so here’s a few basics to note before placing your Celtic Manor bet:

Team-spirit matters more than individual brilliance
If there’s one Ryder Cup lesson punters should have learned from recent decades, this is it. Up until very recently, Europe could never boast a team with the same quality and depth of the US. Even those great sides that contained major champions like Nick Faldo or Seve Ballesteros, were forced to rely on also-rans like Paul Way, David Gilford or Phil Walton. Yet that apparent inferiority rarely if ever made the slightest bit of difference to the outcome.

Ryder Cups have always been about teamwork. It was almost unanimously accepted that Europe had better mastered the art of building camaraderie than the more individualistic Americans. Much of which must come down to the captaincy. Most famously in 2004, with Europe starting as [3.5] outsiders, US captain Hal Sutton‘s simplistic tactic of pairing arch-enemies Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson on the opening morning backfired spectacularly. Under the leadership of the more calculating Bernhard Langer, Europe went on to win by a huge nine point margin.

Last time at Valhalla, the formbook again proved irrelevant. Layers made Europe favourites for the first time ever away from home, yet an ordinary US side took their revenge. I doubt it was pure coincidence that their side was without Woods, never known as a team-player or for his passion in this competition. Nor that Europe had their least convincing captain of the modern era in Nick Faldo.

Does this mean the US will overcome their current inferiority? It certainly means they shouldn’t be daunted by their opponents’ superior rankings, domination of majors and to some extent, the PGA Tour. They can also take heart from emphatic victories in the last two Presidents Cups, suggesting they are finally learning the art of team golf.

Back outsiders in the final-day singles, especially for the home side
Those equalising trends have long been evident in all forms of matchplay, as seen by frequent shock results in the annual World Matchplay events. Over the years in the Ryder Cup, backing the outsider of two in final day singles matches has paid dividends. Blindly backing the outsider for level stakes in each match would have yielded an overall profit over the past decade. Out of the 12 matches, there are always at least a couple of shocks at well over [3.0], which together cover more than half the total layout.

The biggest upset in 2008 was Ben Curtis toppling Lee Westwood. Looking further back, Phil Price’s victory at around [4.5] over Phil Mickelson at The Belfry in 2002 and Constantino Rocca’s victory over Tiger at Valderrama in 1997 are remembered as two of the competition’s great upsets.

Note the clue; all three of those upsets were achieved by a home player. Matchplay is a great leveller in any context, but all that noisy home support is probably worth an extra hole. In the pairs formats, it is probably easier for visiting teams to unite and block out the crowd. Singles on the other hand, seems to be quite a lonely experience. It is no coincidence that the home side has won four of the last five final day singles.

Stick with the obvious candidates in top scorer markets
While the markets for each side’s top points-scorer appear to be 12-runner contests, in reality the number can be whittled down to the obvious few who are likely to play a minimum of four matches, and preferably all five. Over the last five Ryder Cups, every winner of these markets bar one had played the full quote of five. The exception, Chris Dimarco in 2004, played in four, and his 2.5 points tally has to be seen as something of a freak result; the consequence of his team’s massive defeat.

Who might be those players this year? Given his calf injury, it seems unlikely Westwood will be asked to carry such a burden, and with Garcia missing out, Europe are looking for new ‘team leaders’. I suspect the extra responsibility will fall on young guns Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer, whose wider form is the best available. The Molinari brothers must also be candidates, because if they play on the opening morning and win, it will be hard to ignore the reigning World Cup champions’ claim to be the perfect partnership.

For the Americans, assuming Tiger earns a wild-card, his reputation should ensure he plays the full quota. Captain Pavin will doubtless want to rekindle the pairing Tiger formed with Steve Stricker during the last Presidents Cup, which yielded a 100% record. Given Woods’ troubles, he may be a better price than usual too.

In addition to making such advance guesses about pairings, it could pay to follow the news closely in the days leading up to the start. Information about practice pairings is always reported, and given that both sides will contain a few players that nobody expects to play the full quota, it shouldn’t be too hard to narrow this down to four or five candidates.

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(expired)Wimbledon 2010: Men’s Singles Final – Rafael Nadal beats Tomas Berdych: Trading update 4 Jul 2010

Rafael Nadal won his second Wimbledon title with minimum fuss this afternoon after beating Tomas Berdych in straight sets. The world number one was matched at a high of 10.0 when the market first went up on Betfair but never traded shorter than that once the tournament got under way, despite trailing 2-1 in sets on two occasions, first to Robin Haase and then against Phillip Petzschner.

Tomas Berdych backers certainly got a run for their money after the Czech was matched at a high of 250.0 to win pre-tournament; he was matched at a low of 2.88 when looking strong during the first set of the final. But the right-hander found out the hard way that not taking the few chances that come your way against Nadal normally comes back to haunt you and his inability to convert the few break points he had, cost him dear. A straight sets win for the favourite was matched at a high of 3.95, who only ever touched 1.45 on the match odds market.

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(expired)Argentina v Germany: Trading update 3 Jul 2010

This young German side of Jogi Low continues to stun football fans around the world, and a fair few punters in the process. ‘Die Mannshcaft’ were backed at a high of 3.6 on Betfair to beat Argentina inside 90 minutes but there was far greater carnage than that on some of the other markets after they romped to a 4-0 win over the much-fancied Argentina of Diego Maradona.

They were backed at 4.8 to keep a clean sheet against the free-scoring South Americans, at 7.2 to be leading at half-time and winning at full-time and at 7.8 to win to nil. The correct score market was the one that saw the most extraordinary price being matched with the “any unquoted” (either team to score four or more goals) touching odds of 100.0, hardly surprising given that it was just 1-0 after 67 minutes.

This run to the semis is a remarkable turn of events for a side who came into this tournament riddled with problems including allegations of in-fighting, discontent over the manager’s alleged pay demands, injuries to key players such as Michael Ballack and the fact they had been drawn in an extremely tough group made up of Ghana, Serbia and Australia. All of which explains why they went into this tournament at around the 17.0 mark despite having a fantastic pedigree in the World Cup. Argentina were matched at a low of 4.8.

Miroslav Klose’s two goals in the game mean that despite a torrid time at Bayern Munich this season, he is right up there at the top of the goalscoring charts once again. The lanky striker is on four goals alongside David Villa, Wesley Sneijder, Gonzalo Higuain and Robert Vittek  with only the first two still left in the competition. Klose is the 5.2 second-favourite behind 2.0 David Villa, who plays tonight. His side are 3.2 to win yet another World Cup.

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(expired)Wimbledon 2010: Women’s Singles Final – Serena Williams beats Vera Zvonareva: Trading update 3 Jul 2010

Serena Williams beat Vera Zvonareva in straight sets this afternoon to win her thirteenth Grand Slam title after being matched at a high of just 4.9 on Betfair’s winner market. The win puts her ahead of Billie Jean King in GS titles and in truth it was a victory that was never really in doubt; Serena didn’t face a single break point the whole match and was never troubled at all against an opponent who always looked she didn’t really believe she could win the match.

Serena was backed at a high of [2.0] to win the match in straight sets. The Serena/Nadal winning double has been backed at odds of 16.0.

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(expired)World Cup 2010: Brazil crash out to the Netherlands – Trading update 2 Jul 2010

The Betfair World Cup winner market has lost its favourite as Brazil crashed out at the quarter-final stages at the hands of the Netherlands. Robinho opened the scoring after being matched at 10.0 and it all looked like plain sailing for “Sergeant” Dunga’s troops who traded at just 1.23 on the match odds market.

An uncharacteristic mistake from the normally reliable Brazilian keeper Julio Cesar gifted the Orange an equaliser before a Wesley Sneijder header from a corner shocked football fans and punters alike and proved enough to see the outsiders through, a task made easier after Juventus midfielder Felipe Melo was sent off for a stamp on Arjen Robben shortly after the second goal.

The Netherlands were matched at 48.0 on the match odds market, at 9.4 on the “to qualify” market and at 55.0 to be behind at the break and winning at 90 minutes; Sneijder was matched at 19.0 to be the match’s last scorer.

Dirk Kuyt and co now share favouritism with Spain to go all the way, at odds of 3.4, though backers of Brazil’s victors may consider themselves to be in a better position given that Spain still need to beat Paraguay if they are to make the final four. If they do sweep Paraguay aside, Vicente Del Bosque’s team will have to play the winner of the eagerly awaited Germany v Argentina clash.

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(expired)Six time Wimbledon Champion Roger Federer sensationally knocked out by Tomas Berdych – Trading update 30 Jun 2010

Six-time Wimbledon Champion Roger Federer has been sensationally knocked out of Wimbledon by Tomas Berdych after being backed at just 1.18 when the market first went up on Betfair a couple of days ago.

The Swiss maestro dropped the first set but bounced back to win the second and many who have watched the notoriously flaky Berdych blow winning positions in the past were probably expecting more of the same. The Czech has looked a vastly improved player this season though, particularly between the ears, and he kept coming back at Federer, eventually winning 6-4 3-6 6-1 6-4. Berdych was backed at a high of 6.4 to win the match and now trades at 6.0 for the tournament, which is a pretty tasty position to be in for those who backed him at odds of 250.0 a few weeks back. Federer traded at a low of 2.26 to win a seventh Wimbledon title.

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(expired)Group E: Final games – Trading update 24 Jun 2010

Netherlands took a page out of Argentina’s book by making it three from three in the group stages as they beat Cameroon 2-1 after being backed at 4.5 in-running in Betfair’s match odds market. Robin Van Persie scored at the  third time of asking after drawing blanks against Japan and Denmark (he was matched at 6.6 on the first goalscorer market) to get the Dutch underway but Samuel Eto’o hit back from the penalty spot before Klaas Jan-Huntelaar scored the winner after Arjen Robben’s shot had hit the upright, the Bayern Munich man making his first appearance at the World Cup after coming on as a sub. The 1988 European champions are the fourth favourites at 8.0 to go on and win the competition though their doubters will point out they’ve looked the team to beat after the group stages in other tournaments before crumbling when the pressure was on.

In tonight’s other Group E match, Japan got the better of Denmark in a 3-1 win that was backed at 65.0. Japan looked the better and fresher team for much of the match and thoroughly deserved the win, backed in-running at 4.6. Those priceless three points in this winner-takes-all match mean it’s them and not the Scandinavians who will face Paraguay in the last sixteen. Japan were backed at 10.0 to qualify from what was one of the toughest groups and are trading at 80.0 to be the first-ever Asian winners of a World Cup.

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(expired)Group F: Final games – Trading update 24 Jun 2010

Italy and Slovakia played out the most gripping match of the tournament so far which ended up with a 3-2 victory to Slovakia, a scoreline matched at odds of 300 on Betfair. More importantly it meant the World Champions not only crashed out of the tournament but actually ended up bottom of a group which many considered to be the weakest of the lot.

The odds certainly suggested qualification to the last sixteen would be a walk in the park for Marcello Lippi’s side; they were matched at just 1.06 to qualify and 1.41 to top the group. But this side were a shadow of the gritty and resilient one that won the last World Cup and never got going at all and in the end Slovakia, matched at 8.8 to win the game, were more than worthy victors. Wladimir Weiss’ team were backed at 19.0 to be leading at half-time and winning at full-time; two-goal hero Robert Wittek matched at 300 to score first.

If that match was all goals, excitement and drama, Paraguay v New Zealand was the polar opposite as the two sides ground out a goalless draw in one of the dullest matches of the competition so far, which produced few chances and just two corners the whole match. Still, Paraguay won’t be too bothered as it guaranteed their place in the next round as group winners. Paraguay to win the group and Slovakia to come second was backed at 36.0. The South Americans are by far the more fancied of the two from here on- they are 38.0 to win the World Cup with Slovakia much bigger at 190.0.

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(expired)Portugal v North Korea: Trading update 21 Jun 2010

The floodgates opened this lunchtime as Portugal beat North Korea 7-0, by far the biggest winning margin of this World Cup or any other in recent times. The curious thing is that for the first half hour this promised to be a tight affair that looked like it might be settled by the odd goal. Portugal had drifted to 1.57 on the match odds market before Raul Meireles opened the scoring with a fine finish.

Simao Sabrosa added a second and Cristiano Ronaldo got in on the action as well late on as Carlos Queiros’ side put themselves in a fantastic position to qualify from Group G. The Euro 2004 runners-up are currently unbackable to make the last sixteen despite it being mathematically possible that the Ivory Coast could still qualify ahead of them. Didier Drogba and co would have to hope that Brazil beat Portugal comfortably and hammer North Korea themselves. The 7-0 scoreline was matched at 410 on Betfair. A Portuguese clean sheet was backed at 1.79.

The layers in the World Cup winner market seem to be pretty impressed with what they saw this afternoon seeing as they’ve cut “Os Navegadores” to 21.0 from 34.0 which is what they were trading at before the start of the match. The obvious downside to the bet is that Spain could well be their last sixteen opponents. They are 6.2 to recover from their shock defeat against Switzerland and go on and win the tournament.

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