Australian Open

Roger Federer was at his most brilliant and ruthless best in beating Andy Murray in straight sets this morning, but not before he had traded at odds of 8 for the tournament on Betfair. That was when he was trailing Russia’s Nikolay Davydenko by a set and 3-1 and facing two further break points  in the quarter-finals, but he showed his class and cool under pressure on that occasion and replicated those qualities once again today.

That said, the world number one did drift from starting odds of around 1.62 for the final to 1.96 during a see-saw first set when the two traded blows, break points were aplenty and much of the best tennis of the match was played. Murray traded at a low of 2.0 for the tournament. Federer trades at odds of 9.0 to do the unthinkable and win all four Slams this year, having been matched as high as 85.

Serena Williams won the Australian Open after being matched at a high of 26 on Betfair. The World Number One was matched at this price on the winner market when a set and 4-0 down against Victoria Azarenka in the quarter-finals but she recovered to win that match and went on to beat the unseeded Justine Henin in the final over three sets.

Henin was matched at a low of 1.3 for the tournament when she was carrying all the momentum in the third set and had two break points to go 2-0 up but Serena showed why she’s now won 12 Grand Slam titles, including five Aussie Opens, by fighting back and comfortably taking the deciding set 6-2.

And then there were two. Roger Federer destroyed a strangely below-par Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in straight sets this morning to set up a fascinating Australian Open final against Andy Murray on Sunday.

It’s hard to know what to make of the Tsonga match really, and with the Frenchman a shadow of his usual self, it was a walk in the park for the world number 1 in a semi-final that lasted just 88 minutes and saw Tsonga throw in an embarrassing 27 unforced errors. Federer’s serving was very good, there’s no doubt about that, but the 2008 finalist never looked for a moment like he believed he could win, and his trademark energy and bounce on court was entirely absent as the 3-time champion dropped just 15 points on serve.

Andy Murray’s path into the final has also been fairly straightforward, and after a slightly nervy start, he was far too strong for the rapidly rising young Croat, Marin Cilic. Now with the chance to become the UK’s first Grand Slam champion in 74 years, Murray recovered from losing the opening set to come through 3-1, his impressive range of shots and tactical know-how on full display as he totally outclassed his opponent. The aim now for the Scotsman is to avenge his 2008 US Open final defeat against Federer, and encouragingly he does go into the match with a 6-4 advantage in the pair’s head-to-head record.

The betting for the final is predictably close, with – even more predictably – Federer the slight favourite to claim yet another major title in his 22^nd Grand Slam final. Murray is currently available at 11/8 with Federer 4/7. So can Murray actually break his duck and capture the first of what will surely be several Grand Slams? Absolutely. It’s interesting that all of these two’s meetings have been on hard courts – Murray’s preferred surface of course – and while Roger is an incredible hard court player, you’d fancy Murray more here than on the grass of Wimbledon for example.

Having grown in strength and stamina over the last couple of years, Murray now has the physical attributes to back up his sublime touch and tactical brain, and he certainly knows how to beat Federer. For my money, in such a tough match to call, you have to feel that Murray is the value at a fairly generous-looking 11/8. Blue Square does of course offer a range of markets ahead of Sunday’s showpiece, with Set Betting always a popular option. Federer is as short as 11/4 to achieve a 3-0 whitewash, surely not likely against a player of Murray’s quality, and if you are keen to get with the Fed Express here, 3-2 looks like the way to go, which is available at 5/1. In fact, 3-2 to Murray is also 5/1, and you could certainly do a lot worse than either of those bets with this one likely to be really tight.

Given the fact that these two look so well-matched for this final, the 8/15 available about there being a tie-break in the match also looks good, and if this one does go to the full 5 sets, it would be a surprise if none of them were settled on a breaker. Another bet that appeals is the 8/11 for Federer to get the first break of serve, and after the way he decimated Tsonga’s service, while Murray had a brief wobble at the start of his semi with Cilic, that’s a very solid price indeed. For those slightly quirkier bets, you can back Murray to make the first Hawk Eye Challenge at 8/11, with Federer available at evens. Given the often acerbic nature of the Scotsman on court, you’d have to expect him to challenge first, and you’d be forgiven for having expected the gap in the betting to be a little wider than that – 8/11 looks a decent price here.

Lastly, I’d like to commiserate with those who had a bit of the 100/1 available on Murray to take the title without dropping a set. That first set against Cilic was the only blip on his performance in this tournament, and though it would still be a big shock to see him to beat Federer 3-0, that would have really added some spice to the match! Good luck with your bets, and enjoy what should be a brilliant final.

Sky Bet are launching a new tennis betting market; ‘Match won on first match point?” ahead of the Australian Open women’s final between Serena Williams and Justine Henin on Saturday morning. It’s 5/6 that the match is won on the first match point (5/6 not won on first match point).

Neil Brookes, Sky Bet’s tennis betting spokesman said: “The ‘Match won on first match point?’ market gives the bettor the chance to have a pre-match bet that will keep them interested for most, if not all of the match but “No” backers will be hoping they are collecting before the final shot is struck.”

Sky Bet have produced a host of other betting markets on the showdown between Williams and Henin, who have never yet met in a Grand Slam final. The early money has been for four-time champion Serena, who is 10/11 to take consecutive Australian Open titles for the fist time.

Henin (10/11) will be aiming to match the comeback of her compatriot, Kim Clijsters, who returned from retirement to win the US Open last year.

A closely fought contest is expected and Sky Bet go 11/10 that the match goes to three sets. (more…)

Andy Murray will meet three-time Australian Open champion Roger Federer in the final at Melbourne Park and Sky Bet are offering top price on Murray, whose odds of ending Britain’s 74 year wait for a male major winner on Sunday are 6/4 .

Federer wrapped up his semi-final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in just 88 minutes and is Sky Bet’s 3/5 favourite to beat Murray and take his 16^th Grand Slam title.

Sky Bet’s tennis betting spokesman Chris Kennedy said: “Although it would be fantastic to see Murray claim his first major on Sunday, Federer looked in great shape in his semi and looks set to win his 16^th Grand Slam in convincing manner.”

Sky Bet make Murray’s odds of winning a Grand Slam this year 1/2. (more…)

Andy Murray is through to the final of the Australian Open, where he will face either Roger Federer or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Sky Bet make Murray’s odds of beating world number one Federer in the final 6/5, while it’s 5/6 for the Swiss master to overcome the Brit.

Murray’s odds of beating Tsonga to claim his first Grand Slam title are 15/2, while the Frenchman is 18/1 to triumph against Murray.

Sky Bet’s tennis betting expert Chris Kennedy said: “Murray did just enough to see off a tired Cilic in today’s semi but he will have to raise his performance to get past the great Roger Federer and claim his maiden Grand Slam title.”

Sky Bet make Murray a 2/5 shot to win a major this year. (more…)

The Men’s Singles semi-finals of the Australian Open 2010 sees Andy Murray face Croatia’s Marin Cilic while Roger Federer takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

We must start with Andy Murray, the man who is still yet to drop a set in this year’s tournament, maybe thanks to Nadal’s retirement through injury, but it’s still a hell of an achievement from the young Scot. As highlighted in my Aussie Open preview, Blue Square offered 100/1 for Murray to win the title without dropping a set, and he’s now in to just 14/1 to pull it off – well done to those shrewd punters still sitting on those bets with their man potentially 6 sets away from glory!

Murray’s match with Cilic is scheduled to start around 8:30 tomorrow morning, and what an encounter that one should be. Murray leads 3-1 in the head-to-head stats, but his straight sets defeat to the Croatian number 14 in last year’s US Open showed just how dangerous an opponent this young man is. Still only 21, his run to the quarter-finals of that event was his best ever in a Grand Slam before this semi-final, and having disposed of del Potro and Roddick to get here, Cilic is a massive threat. Unfortunately for him, both of the afore-mentioned matches went to 5 sets, and he has had a tough time in getting to this stage, so there’s no doubt who will be the fresher player.

Murray surely must be backed at 2/9 to win this one, and such is his form right now, you’d probably want to be with him to win 3-0 at 6/5. Murray is in the form of his life, and having threatened to win a Grand Slam for the last couple of years, he now looks ready to go all the way. His serving has improved massively – he sent down 13 aces in his two and a half sets against Rafa, one of the best returners of all time – and his touch around the court is now right up there with Federer. An 89% success rate at the net against Isner in the 4^th round shows how the Scot can mix up his game, and the sometimes one-dimensional Cilic could well struggle for answers to the problems Murray will pose him. A lack of experience at this stage of a Slam may also be a factor for Cilic here, and it would be no surprise to see him start a little nervously in this one. Murray looks good for the first service break of the match at 4/9, while the 4/11 about him winning the first set also appeals.

Contesting the other semi are Federer and Tsonga after brilliant performances by both men earlier this morning. Three-time Aussie Open winner Roger Federer recovered from a woeful first set against the ATP’s form man Nikolay Davydenko to storm through with a 3-1 win, thus ending the hopes of my tip for the title! There’s nothing really to say about the Swiss legend that hasn’t been said before, and when he really hits the heights, there’s simply nobody who can live with him. That uncharacteristically bad first set against Davydenko was, incidentally, just the second that he has dropped in this year’s event.

Now standing in his way is world number 10 and 2008 finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the man who prevailed against Novak Djokovic with 2 massive last sets as he closed the match out 3-2. The Frenchman fired 19 aces past the Serb in a brilliant display of power tennis, and having played Federer just twice in major tournaments with a 1-1 record, he certainly won’t lack belief. Fed is as short as 1/6 with Tsonga currently a rather large 7/2, and that sort of price certainly appeals having watched Tsonga batter a player of Djokovic’s class into submission this morning. One thing is for certain, however, if Tsonga is to win this one, it will be very close, and the 10/1 about him beating Federer 3-2 is another bet that stands out – he has gone to 5 sets against Nicolas Almagro and Djokovic in the previous 2 rounds.

I can’t help feeling that Murray’s name is on the trophy this year, and if Tsonga can upset Federer to reach another final here, the Scot would certainly be a strong favourite to prevail in Sunday’s showpiece. Federer is currently favourite at 5/6 to lift the trophy, with Murray the value in my eyes at 11/8, while Tsonga is also a real tempter at 12/1. Cilic is currently 14/1 for an unlikely, headline-grabbing title win.

Andy Murray is now 6/4 to take his first major at the Australian Open following his defeat of Rafa Nadal today.

Paddy Power have cut the odds on the Brit taking his first major from a pre-tournament 5/1 as Murray marches on to a semi-final match against Marin Cilic. Murray is expected to win the semi-final and is 2/7 to defeat Cilic with the Croatian 5/2 to upset the fifth seed. Such has been Murray’s form in Melbourne he is 13/8 to win the semi-final in straight sets.

Murray is also now just 2/7 to win a major in 2010 from 6/4 at the start of the year.

Bookie Refunds Bets

Nadal’s injury withdrawal when seemingly on course for a straight sets defeat to Murray could have meant all bets were to be voided. But with Murray clearly in the ascendancy for the win Paddy Power are paying out on all Murray match bets and all bets on the 3-0 Murray set betting. Murray was just 1/100 to win the match when Nadal retired.

Paddy Power said: “Murray was certain to win that game and it looked like Nadal knew it so I’m not sure punters should really be missing out on for backing what would have been a fine win for Murray.” (more…)

Sky Bet have cut Justine Henin’s odds of winning the Australian Open to 2/1 (from 5/2) after she progressed to the last four with a straight sets victory over 19th seed Nadia Petrova.

The seven-time Grand Slam champion is Sky Bet’s 1/4 favourite to beat China’s Zheng Jie (3/1) in the semi-finals and 4/6 to win in straight sets.

Henin is playing only her second tournament since coming out of an 18-month retirement and Sky Bet make her 7/4 second favourite to be ranked number one in the world at the end of 2010. Serena Williams is 6/4 favourite to hang onto the top spot.

Sky Bet’s tennis betting spokesman Chris Kennedy said: “The return of Henin and Clijsters to the women’s game seems to have given the Williams sisters further desire to compete and we can look forward to an enthralling 2010 season as the four battle for supremacy.”

Sky Bet are also offering odds on how the 27-year-old Belgian fares in the other majors this year and go 2/5 (from 1/2) that she wins a Grand Slam and 9/2 that she wins Wimbledon, the only Grand Slam title to have eluded her so far. (more…)

Sky Bet are offering over thirty pre-match Australian Open betting markets ahead of Andy Murray’s quarter-final clash with Rafa Nadal. Special bets include 15/8 for Tuesday’s match to go to five sets and it’s 5/6 for there to be forty games or more.

Sky Bet make the British number one narrow 4/5 favourite to beat the world number two (21/20). Murray is the only man yet to drop a set in four matches in Melbourne and Sky Bet offer 4/1 that he records a straight sets victory over the Spaniard.

Despite his comfortable progress to the quarter-finals, Murray’s erratic first service percentage has caused some consternation. Sky Bet go 4/7 that he commits more double faults than Nadal (5/4).

Sky Bet’s tennis betting expert Stephen Parkes said: “This is so far the highest profile match of the tournament and at the moment Murray is just winning the battle for favouritism. All signs point to a close, long match but in the big match atmosphere anything could happen.” (more…)